Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 28

Weather Outlook

World weather woes recede ...
but for how long?
BY DREW LERNER

Weather conditions around the world in
early-to-mid-October were adverse in
many key agricultural areas. Dryness in
Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the United
States and Argentina was creating some
serious concern over the future of wheat
production while delayed seasonal rainfall in Brazil was helping soybean futures
prices to rise through the roof.
Some claimed that China's buying
interest was the key to market interest
from August through early October, but
weather conditions were certainly contributing - at least for a while. However,
within a very short period of time many

has been falling in central and western
Ukraine long enough for winter crops to
become better established, but the same is
not true for eastern parts of the nation or
in Russia's Southern region.
Two rain events within 10 days in a part
of Russia's Southern region have brought
in enough moisture for better root and tiller development, but temperatures must
stay warm a few more weeks to ensure
the best possible establishment.
None of the rain that has fallen recently
in Ukraine or Russia's Southern region
has reached into Kazakhstan, and its
unirrigated winter crops are not emerging or establishing well and that may

Average 7-day topsoil moisture
ended Oct. 27, 2020

of the weather issues that were present
in mid-October either were eliminated
or temporarily eased at the end of the
month.
Chronic dryness in eastern Ukraine,
Russia's Southern region and Kazakhstan this year was similar to that of 2019.
Seasonal rainfall was very late in coming
last year, leaving winter crops little time
to emerge and establish properly. Last
year's poor emergence and establishment
left winter crops vulnerable to winterkill,
but that was never realized because of
a very mild to warm winter. This year's
winter crops are no better established
than last year, and some would suggest
conditions may be a little worse.
Recent rain has fallen in parts of Russia's Southern region along with a few
eastern Ukraine locations. However, for
some areas rain has only fallen a couple
of times since planting, and root and
tillers are poorly established and time
is quickly running out for winter crop
establishment prior to dormancy. Rain
28 / November 3, 2020

Milling & Baking News

lead to a cut in production. In the case
of Russia's Southern region and eastern
Ukraine there will not likely be enough
time for crops to establish well, which
leaves them more vulnerable to winter
weather extremes.
La NiƱa is expected to help induce
some wild gyrations in air temperatures
around the world this winter. Such an
environment sending temperatures well
above average and then well below average raises the potential for winterkill. If
threatening cold air comes into the production region without sufficient snow
cover, the potential for crop damage will
be greater than usual, and that will warrant a close watch.
In the United States, dryness was quite
serious in hard red winter wheat production areas for several weeks. Precipitation
was well below average and temperatures well above normal, which depleted
soil moisture. Winter crop planting and
emergence advanced, but the overall
condition of wheat was rated poorly as a

result of dryness and excessive warmth.
Then in the last days of October a significant cold surge and a slow moving upper
atmospheric storm system brought an
excellent opportunity for rain, snow and
freezing rain. The moisture evolved and
brought a substantial reversal in soil conditions that will translate into better winter crop conditions as temperatures turn
warmer and the sun shines abundantly
during November.
Soft wheat areas in the lower US Midwest also experienced a notable break
from dry and warm weather in mid-tolate October. Frequent bouts of rain bolstered topsoil moisture for a big improvement in planting moisture, emergence
and establishment. That leaves the US
Pacific Northwest as the last place in the
United States that is too dry for winter
crops. It should be pointed out that dryness in Montana was also persistent in
September and early October, resulting
in incomplete planting and emergence
when a shot of bitter cold air emerged in
late October. That cold would have killed
crops had it not been for the significant
snow that preceded the cold.
Winter crops in Montana are still not
completely planted, and some of the winter grain was going to need several weeks
of unusual warmth to melt snow so that
the moisture soaks into the ground and
supports late season emergence and establishment.
Argentina was another area in the
world struggling with extremely dry conditions outside of Buenos Aires and a few
immediate neighboring areas in the first
half of October. Argentina's wheat was
reproducing and filling in Cordoba and
Santa Fe, two of the nation's driest crop
areas, during mid-October. The stress
possibly was hurting yield potentials, but
just like so many other areas in the world
there was a last minute series of weather
disturbances in the last 10 days of October that bolstered soil moisture and greatly improved wheat reproduction and filling conditions.
Argentina's moisture also came at nearly the best time to revitalize early planted
corn and sunseed that was struggling
with dryness. Some planting of corn, sunseed and now soybeans could have been
seriously delayed by dryness had it not
been for the wet finish to October.
Brazil's weather also turned in late October. The nation has been dealing with a
near absence of rainfall from late September through early October at which time
the early soybeans normally are planted.
The delay in planting corn, sunseed and
soybeans will not harm their production
potential, but it will delay their harvest,
and that raises the potential for delayed
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com


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Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020

Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 2
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 3
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 4
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 5
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 6
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 7
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 8
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 9
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 10
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 11
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 12
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 13
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 14
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 15
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 16
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 17
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 18
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 19
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 20
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 21
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 22
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 23
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 24
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 25
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 26
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 27
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 28
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 29
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 30
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 31
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 32
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 33
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 34
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 35
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 36
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 37
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 38
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 39
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 40
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 41
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 42
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 43
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 44
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 45
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 46
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 47
Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2020 - 48
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2021_01_12
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_12_29
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_12_15
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_11_17
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_05_05
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_04_21
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_04_07
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_03_24
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_03_10
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_02_25
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2020_02_11
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2019_05_21
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_12_13
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_11_29
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mbn/2011_11_15
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