Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020 - 32

Washington Update

Can a house divided ... reunite?
Next few months to be telling
BY ROBBIN JOHNSON

As this article goes to press more
than a week after the Nov. 3 election,
a famous phrase from Abraham Lincoln comes to mind: " a house divided against itself cannot stand. " This
seems to be the greatest challenge
lying ahead for President-elect Joe
Biden. Both he and President Donald
Trump garnered the most popular
votes ever for a presidential winner
and loser, underlining how strong
and widespread were feelings on both
sides of the electorate.
Can Mr. Biden deliver on his promise
to govern not red states or blue states
but the United States of America?
Dividing lines
There are many dividing lines. The
electoral map shows the division
starkly: blue states along both coasts
and in the Northeast; red states in the
South, Midwest and West; and at least
four battleground states that were
" too close to call " days after the election. Mr. Biden made controlling the
coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
job one, while Mr. Trump focused on
the economy.
Health care jabs and a divisive vote
on Supreme Court justice Amy Coney
Barrett added to the partisan rancor.
The divisions are particularly emphatic for the agricultural community. The farm economy is a big deal
in most red states, amplifying ruralurban voting differences. Polling data
from the run-up to the election highlight how strongly farmers lined up
behind Mr. Trump.
An Oct. 20 article in The Wall Street
Journal entitled " Farmers Favor Trump,
Despite Trade Woes, " summarized a
number of surveys: a July Farm Futures
poll showed 75% of farmers planning
to vote for Mr. Trump; a September
Farm Journal poll showed 82% of Iowa
farmers and 87% of Minnesota farmers supporting Mr. Trump; and a Marquette University poll found 55% of
Wisconsin farmers behind Mr. Trump.
This strong farmer support for Mr.

Robbin S. Johnson, a fellow
with the Hubert H. Humphrey
Institute of Public Affairs,
is a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.
32 / November 17, 2020

Milling & Baking News

up sharply. Most farmers would prefer their income from the market, not
public programs. Farmers also welcomed Mr. Trump's easing of environmental regulations and cuts in taxes,
both of which may be vulnerable in a
Biden administration.

Other appointments to watch will
include: Treasury, Commerce, Energy,
Interior, US Trade Representative, the
Environmental Protection Agency,
and the National Economic Council.
In all of these cases - as well as with
many other Cabinet posts - there will
be pushing and pulling between the
more progressive wing of the Democrat Party and more centrists. As well,
if Republicans retain control of the
Senate, they can influence both the
choices Mr. Biden makes and the tone
of cooperation versus confrontation
that develops.
Mr. Biden's declared priorities largely reflect non-agricultural interests. He
has promised to roll back many of Mr.
Trump's deregulation executive orders,
but which ones and how can matter to
farmers. Another pledge is to rejoin the
Paris Climate agreement and the World
Health Organization, tone-setting steps
for the international community and
especially for American allies.
Closer to home, what he does on the
COVID-19 crisis, health care, another
economic stimulus package, trade dealings with China and our allies, immigration reforms and potential infrastructure
legislation will be clearer signals of both
likely effects on US agriculture and the
nation's ability to escape the gridlock it
has fallen into. A trade decision to join
the Comprehensive and Progressive
Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership would be a positive signal to the
farm community and allies alike.

Unifying possibilities
The reality of a closely divided nation may in fact reinforce some positives for US agriculture.
The Democrats' tightening House
majority and the likelihood of narrow
Republican control of the Senate (possibly not resolved until the Jan. 5, 2021,
run-off races for Georgia's two Senate
seats) may help Mr. Biden steer toward more centrist, unifying policies.
His transition team already is at
work developing a list of prospective
Cabinet members. While the Agriculture Secretary is seldom a key Cabinet
member, who gets picked will be a
closely watched signal. According to
a Politico report, former North Dakota
Senator Heidi Heitkamp and Representative Marcia Fudge, chair of a
House Agriculture subcommittee on
nutrition, are leading candidates, with
very different priorities. The former
House Agriculture committee chair,
Collin Peterson, who was defeated
in a district that went heavily to Mr.
Trump, might also be in the mix.

Speed bumps
There also are some important
speed bumps to be navigated before
a Biden administration is in place.
While Mr. Biden has accepted the election result as settled, Mr. Trump has so
far refused to concede, instead threatening court challenges and possibly
other disruptive tactics.
For that reason, it is worthwhile to
consider the formal road the Constitution lays out to confirm the election
result, as there are some important
milestones to a smooth transition: Dec.
8, the final date for resolving recounts,
court challenges, etc.; Dec. 14, when the
Electoral College's official ballots are
cast and then forwarded to Washington; Dec. 23, the deadline for delivering
those official votes; and Jan. 6, when
the House and Senate jointly tally the
votes and deal with possible objections.
If all else fails to select a winner, the
House elects the president, with each
state having one vote, and 26 votes required to win. It is to be hoped that it
does not come to that. MBN

Trump was in spite of the trade tensions the president ramped up with
China and in the face of sagging farmgate prices. The Trump administration
eased some of that pain with passage
of a new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and two large payments to producers totaling billions of
dollars.
Overall, net farm income in 2020
should exceed $100 billion, more than
half again as high as in 2016. The share
of that income coming from governmental payments, however, also is

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Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020

Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020 - 2
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