Milling & Baking News - April 20, 2021 - 25

Weather Outlook

impacting the region's corn and soybean production areas.
Ocean temperature anomalies off the
West Coast of North America dictate
the PDO. Water temperatures that are
cooler-biased are considered to be in
the negative phase of PDO while water
temperatures that become anomalously warm result in the positive phase of
PDO. The PDO index varies between
-3 and +3. The PDO in February was
-0.54, according to the Joint Institute
for the study of the Atmosphere and
Ocean (JISAO) at the University of
Washington. The PDO was suspected
of being more negative in March.
In the meantime, the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested the February index was -1.09 and the March
index was -1.61.
The JISAO index is preferred, but it
is obvious from NOAA that the index
moved lower and that is the most important part of the discussion.
The ocean temperatures are continuing to cool down off the upper and
middle West Coast of North America,
and the PDO is expected to continue
becoming more negative. This raises

the potential for the ridge of high pressure, which should be strongest over
the Rocky Mountains this late spring,
to possibly shift more deeply into the
Great Plains and possibly to the western US Corn Belt during late spring
and summer. If that occurs and if the
drought in western North America
is not seriously eased in the next two
months, the potential for more significant summer heat and dryness in
the western half of North America is
going to rise, and that will bring crop
moisture stress to the US Plains and a
part of Canada's Prairies. The situation could become more serious if the
Gulf of Mexico water temperatures
move significantly lower, but that
does not seem very likely at this moment in time.
The eastern Midwest and Atlantic Coast states would be east of the
high-pressure ridge axis this summer if the above scenario plays out,
and that would place those areas in a
north to northwesterly flow of air aloft
bringing some milder air into the region periodically. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms also would occur,
although the precipitation might be

more erratic and light during heart of
summer except in the Atlantic Coast
states, where rainfall could become
more significant.
It is too soon to know precisely
where the high-pressure ridge will be
this summer and how intense it likely
will become. However, with the cooling ocean water in the eastern Pacific
continuing to cool down and drought
prevailing in the western part of
North America through May, the potential will be high for a blocking highpressure system aloft over the middle
of North America for a while this summer interfering with rainfall and raising the potential for crop stress. The
driest weather is expected to be in the
Plains and the Upper Midwest based
on the latest forecast data from World
Weather, Inc., but the situation will be
closely monitored. MBN

Drew Lerner, president
of World Weather, Inc., is
a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.

Sustainability Goals?
Sourcing can be as

eas as

working with

Contact Lisa Woodke, Sustainability Director, at Star of the
West to discuss sustainable sourcing, goals and ideas for your
products
and
company.
We look forward to working with you!
bakingbusiness.com
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Phone: 989-652-9971

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Milling & Baking News - April 20, 2021

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