Milling & Baking News - April 6, 2021 - 30

Weather Outlook

Northern US Plains and Canada
Prairies need rain after dry months
BY DREW LERNER

Months of dryness in the northern US Plains and Canada Prairies
have left producers quite concerned
about prospects for planting and
production this spring. Soil moisture is exhausted in many areas, and
snow cover is gone. Drought status
varies from abnormally dry to an
extreme drought, and producers are
on watch for a significant precipitation event. Fieldwork will begin
soon for oats and a few other early
season crops, but progress is not expected to be quick without at least
one significant precipitation event.
Drought in parts of Canada's
Prairies extends back to 2017. Some
areas have accumulated impressive

Dryness in the soil has left frost as
a limited hindrance to spring planting this year. Soil that has little to
no moisture in it will not experience
the kind of deep frost that occurs in
a normal year. The benefits of this
lack of frost have included a beneficial absorption of snowmelt moisture, but it also will invite greater
moisture losses in areas that warm
up without significant precipitation
falling. Planting can occur quicker
than usual in this environment, and
that raises the potential that some
producers who are worried about
drought might plant earlier than
usual, raising the potential for damage in a late-season frost or freeze
event. This threat would be greater

Average 7-day topsoil moisture ended Mar. 23, 2021

moisture deficits since then, but
complete crop failures have been
avoided by some timely rain events,
and in certain cases some subsoil
moisture reserve that crops were
able to tap into.
This year 's dryness in the Prairies is much deeper and broaderbased relative to that of the past
few years. Portions of Saskatchewan received only one significant
storm system since last summer.
That was a November snowstorm
that was certainly welcome, but the
benefits from that event in the drier
areas already has begun to dissipate due to the unusually warm
temperatures that have prevailed
recently and ongoing dryness.
30 / April 6, 2021

for canola than for wheat, barley or
oats.
Southern portions of the US
northern Plains have a little more
moisture down deep than do areas
in North Dakota, northeastern Montana or areas north into the southern Prairies. That moisture will be
good for oat planting that will begin just as soon as soil temperatures
get a little warmer. The early crops
in South Dakota should develop
relatively well, but some planting in
North Dakota, eastern Montana and
certainly in the Prairies will be left
on hold until at least some rain falls.
The prospects for rain are good for
late April and May. Some showers
and thunderstorms are expected

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to evolve during early spring, but
that precipitation may favor Manitoba, southeastern Saskatchewan,
Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas
over crop areas farther to the west.
Montana, western North Dakota,
southern Alberta and southwestern
Saskatchewan will be last in getting
significant relief.
What worries most producers in
Canada and the northern US more
than anything this year is the potential for a ridge of high pressure
to develop during the late spring
and summer that might shut off the
precipitation once again and bring
on warmer temperatures. The unsettled weather pattern of late April
and May will provide opportunities for rain even though it may not
be as well distributed as desired.
However, if rainfall is lighter than
usual and does not fully restore the
moisture profile down deep into
the ground, the potential for heat
and dryness to harm spring cereals
and canola during reproduction becomes much greater.
The potential for ridge building
this late spring and summer is relatively high because of drought that
is prevailing across western North
America from the Canada Prairies
through the entire western United
States to Mexico. That dry bias
could lead to rapid heating during
the spring and summer, which may
support ridge building aloft. The
potential for a strong high-pressure
ridge in the middle of North America also may be enhanced by cooling
ocean water off the West Coast of
North America. The cool ocean water west of the United States could
help generate a broad-based trough
of low pressure over the Great Basin
and Pacific Coast states, forcing the
anticipated ridge of high pressure
over the heart of the Great Plains
and extending it northward into
southern Canada. This pattern is expected to evolve during late spring
and early summer.
Producers will want to get their
crops into the ground as quickly
as possible this spring to take full
advantage of whatever moisture is
available while it is available since
the potential is relatively high that
dryness may return during the reproductive and filling stages of crop
development. That dryness expectation could also have a significant
impact on summer coarse grain and
oilseed production if spring rainfall
is not significant enough to bolster
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Milling & Baking News - April 6, 2021

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