Milling & Baking News - August 23, 2022 - 50

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50 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
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U.S. and global sweetener
news, data and prices from
Sosland Publishing Company
US cash sugar: Slow sales continue; steady forecasts
Volume 9, Issue 38
S
ales of industrial sugar for this year and
next year remained slow, with most
activity for 2021-22 on hold until after
the virtual International Sweetener Colloquium,
which wrapped up March 3. Event speakers
forecast prices for 2021-22 would hold
about steady with current spot prices and issued
a warning to buyers not to wait too long
to book supplies because of the potential rebound
in sugar demand as the country emerges
from COVID-19 restrictions, although
demand remains an area of debate.
Colloquium speakers Frank Jenkins, JSG
Commodities, and Craig Ruffolo, McKeanyFlavell
Co., forecast 2021-22 sugar prices
about steady with current 2020-21 values
(although they differed somewhat on what
those levels were), and both expect subdued
demand during the first part of the year, in part
due to COVID-19.(See story on Page 3.)
Most beet and cane sugar sellers continued
to offer sugar for 2021-22 flat with spot prices,
(36.50¢ a lb f.o.b. Midwest for beet sugar and
38.50¢ to 39.50¢ Southeast, 38¢ to 39.50¢
Gulf and 42¢ Northeast and West Coast for
refined cane sugar).
Contracting for next year beyond December
2021 has been slow. Many buyers and sellers
now are awaiting the March 9 US Department
of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates report before moving contract
negotiations for the remainder of 202122
beyond the current tire-kicking stage, with
more active sales expected through May.
Speakers at the Colloquium agreed the
sugar market was well below the 16.1% ending
stocks-to-use ratio forecast in the USDA's
February WASDE report, in part because domestic
raw stocks are in excess in Louisiana but
short for East Coast refineries. Imports from
Mexico will be adjusted lower in next week's
report, which, barring other changes, should
lower the ratio to around 14.2%.
Barb Fecso, branch chief, commodity analysis,
Farm Service Agency, USDA, who administers
the US sugar program, in a March 3
presentation at the Colloquium, said the
USDA may have overstated sugar deliveries in
2019-20, due in large part to the way nonreporter
deliveries are residually calculated.
There is considerable debate in the industry
about sugar deliveries this year. Deliveries so
far in 2020-21 have been slow, with recent
severe weather further slowing shipments,
although improvement has since been noted.
The USDA in February forecast 2020-21 deliveries
for food at 12,200,000 tons, down
116,000 tons from last year.
Ms. Fecso urged buyers to pull contracted
supply on time and to not delay new bookings
to avoid logistics delays should sugar demand
break open later this year as the economy
emerges from the pandemic.
Small volumes of sugar continued to be sold
on the spot market, in some cases still above
list price in the Midwest and Southeast. Spot
supplies of beet sugar were limited, but spot
cane refining capacity remained available.
Sugar futures: World raws down, domestic up
New York world raw sugar futures declined 0.15¢ to more than 1¢ a lb from a
week ago amid consolidation in light to mostly moderate trading volume. Most
prices have declined in four of the last five trading sessions. There were fairly heavy
deliveries against the March contract that expired Feb. 26 (See story on Page 3),
indicating tight nearby global supplies, but new front-month May, which was more
than 1¢ a lb below March when it expired, has since continued to decline. Prices
were up 0.65¢ to 1.03¢ a lb from five weeks ago and were up about 0.45¢ to 2.67¢
from a year ago.
Speculative funds added 17,954 lots to their net long position in world raw sugar
futures and options during the week ended Feb. 23, lifting the total net long to
162,672 lots, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
The spot May domestic raw sugar future was unchanged, but other months were
0.20¢ to about 0.70¢ a lb higher for the week. Volume was light most days but was
active on March 3, and most prices advanced further. Raw sugar futures continued
to be supported by the location of domestic raw supplies, which are in excess of
refining capacity in Louisiana but tight on either coast where refining capacity is
available. Trade sources indicated that prices may not have yet risen to the level
needed to cover freight from New Orleans to East Coast refineries, which is more
costly than importing raws from Mexico. Prices were up 0.55¢ to 0.90¢ a lb from
five weeks ago and were up 1.40¢ to 2.20¢ a lb from a year ago.
1 SoslandSWEETENERReport
March 3, 2021
F.o.b. plant,
cents per lb.
Midwest beet
Michigan beet
Pacic beet
Pacic cane
Northeast cane
South/S.E. cane
Gulf cane
See SweetenerReport.com
for daily sweetener market
commentary and news
US bulk refined beet & cane sugar prices
2020-21
Mar. 3
36.50
39.50
37.00-40.00
42.00-43.00
42.00
38.50-39.50
38.00-39.50
#16 Domestic raw sugar futures
Cents per lb.
Mar. 3
May 2021
July
September
November
May
29.95 0.00
29.95 0.20
30.00 0.25
29.05 0.69
January 2022 28.20 0.66
March
28.20 0.66
28.05 0.51
#11 World raw sugar futures
Cents per lb.
Mar. 3
May 2021
July
October
May
July
- Change from -
1 week 1 year
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
NA
NA
NA
-2.00
-2.00
-5.50
-6.00
- Change from -
1 week 5 weeks 1 year
0.55
0.70
0.75
0.55
0.90
0.90
0.75
2.15
2.20
2.15
1.60
1.55
1.55
1.40
- Change from -
16.14 -1.03
15.62 -0.85
15.46 -0.65
March 2022 15.66 -0.50
14.82 -0.35
14.23 -0.21
13.89 -0.15
October
US #16 and #11 raw sugar futures
Nearby, cents per lb.
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
9
1 week 5 weeks 1 year
1.03
0.95
0.93
0.80
0.77
0.77
0.65
2.67
2.15
1.83
1.59
1.11
0.80
0.44
#16
#11
03/04/20
04/01/20
04/29/20
05/27/20
06/24/20
07/22/20
08/19/20
09/16/20
10/14/20
11/11/20
12/09/20
01/06/21
02/03/21
03/03/21
U.S. and global sweetener
news, data and prices from
Sosland Publishing Company
US cash sugar: Quiet ahead of Sweetener Colloquium
Volume 10, Issue 37
T
he cash sugar market was notably
quiet ahead of the International
Sweetener Colloquium that kicks off
Feb. 27 in Tucson, Ariz. Some traders already
were out of their offices. Prices were steady
while deliveries remained active.
Bulk beet and refined cane sugar prices for
2021-22 were unchanged from a week ago.
Processors offered beet sugar from 41¢ to 42¢
a lb f.o.b. Midwest. Michigan beet sugar was
not being offered. Refined cane sugar was
offered at 52¢ a lb f.o.b. Northeast and West
Coast and around 46¢ to 51¢ a lb f.o.b. Southeast
and Gulf. Spot supplies were limited from
most sellers, and many were not actively seeking
new sales for the current year. One major
cane refiner still had refining capacity available
as it has throughout the season.
Both beet and refined cane sugar deliveries
remained strong across the country as has been
the case since a December lull for some.
Discussions on the sidelines of the Colloquium
will focus on buying and selling sugar
for the 2022-23 marketing year that begins
Oct. 1. It's the first in-person event since 2020.
In the past few years, much of the negotiating
for the new marketing year had been completed
prior to the Colloquium. This year, though,
it appears the event will serve as a kickstart for
next year's sales. Some processors and refiners
have already booked a portion of their prospective
production for 2022-23, but most
appear to be waiting until multiple meetings at
the Colloquium. Even though few sales typically
are concluded during the event, traders
go back to their offices and wrap up contracts
in the days and weeks following.
Pricing for 2022-23 was unchanged from a
week ago. Midwest beet sugar was offered at
39¢ a lb f.o.b. by one processor and from 37¢
to 38¢ by others. Refined cane sugar was
offered at 43¢ a lb f.o.b. in the Southeast and
around 45¢ in the Gulf. Current offers were
modestly under spot values, although buyers
generally can secure prices a cent or more
below offers for volume sales. Not all sellers
were making offered prices public yet, but that
likely will change at the Colloquium.
The US Department of Agriculture will issue
its initial 2022-23 sugar (and other crop) projections
during its virtual Agricultural Outlook
Forum Feb. 24-25. Some in the trade expect
area planted to sugar beets to be down slightly
since some acreage went unharvested in 2021,
and prices for competitive crops are strong. At
the same time, current beet sugar prices and
those being offered for 2022-23 should provide
incentive for strong sugar beet plantings
within cooperative parameters.
The market also was closely watching the
Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on
commodities. While the impact on domestic
grain and oilseed futures was quickly apparent,
the impact on sugar will most likely be global
rather than domestic largely due to potentially
increased sugar-based ethanol production
amid soaring energy prices that will leave less
sugar available for export by Brazil.
Sugar futures: World raws higher
No. 11 world raw futures advanced in the holiday-shortened trading week since
last Wednesday. Trading volume was light most days. Nearby prices were seen as
rangebound with insufficient news to push values significantly higher or lower
despite the Russia-Ukraine situation that was having a major impact on several
outside markets. Nearby world raw futures rose to two-week highs on Feb. 23 amid
concerns about production in China and Thailand (although the latter still was
expecting a crop much larger than last year). Also supportive were soaring crude
oil prices that could drive up demand for sugar-based ethanol in Brazil (and some
others countries) and pull down exportable sugar supplies. But limiting gains were
continued active exports by India and uncertainty about demand in some areas.
The spot March contract expires Feb. 28. Futures prices were down 0.10¢ to 0.90¢
a lb from five weeks ago, except for gains in the most deferred months, and prices
were up 0.37¢ to about 2.65¢ a lb from a year ago.
No. 16 domestic raw futures were mixed but mostly lower with only spot May
higher for the week. Trading volume was light and mostly nearby. Prices were
mixed from five weeks ago - lower through November 2022 but higher in 2023
months. Prices were up 5.43¢ to 7.04¢ a lb from a year ago.
Speculative funds raised their net long position in world raw sugar futures and
options by 2,368 lots during the week ended Feb. 16, lifting the total net long to
27,795 lots, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
1 SoslandSWEETENERReport
February 23, 2022
F.o.b. plant,
cents per lb.
Midwest beet
Michigan beet
Pacic beet
Pacic cane
Northeast cane
South/S.E. cane
Gulf cane
See SweetenerReport.com
for daily sweetener market
commentary and news
US bulk refined beet & cane sugar prices
2021-22*
Feb. 23
1 week
41.00-42.00 - -
No quote
- -
42.00-44.00 - -
52.00
52.00
- -
- -
46.00-51.00 - -
46.00-51.00 - -
*Most offers effec�ve through Sept. 30, 2022.
#16 Domestic raw sugar futures
Cents per lb.
May 2022
July
September
November
May
Feb. 23
35.38
0.18
- Change from -
January 2023 33.30
March
35.50 -0.15
35.67 -0.18
35.40 -0.10
0.00
#11 World raw sugar futures
Cents per lb.
March 2022
May
July
October
March 2023
May
July
Feb. 23
18.53
17.88
17.69
17.82
18.15
17.52
17.08
US #16 and #11 raw sugar futures
Nearby, cents per lb.
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
33.20 -0.10
33.20 -0.05
1 week 5 weeks 1 year
-0.72
-1.00
-0.88
-0.05
0.85
0.75
0.75
5.43
5.75
5.92
7.04
5.76
5.66
5.66
- Change from -
1 week 5 weeks 1 year
-0.54
-0.90
-0.82
-0.57
-0.30
-0.10
0.01
0.46
0.32
0.22
0.16
0.14
0.15
0.18
0.37
0.71
1.22
1.71
1.99
2.35
2.64
- Change from -
1 year
+4.5 to +5.5
- -
+4 to +5
+9 to +10
+10
+7.5 to +11.5
+8 to +11.5
#16
#11
02/24/21
03/24/21
04/21/21
05/19/21
06/16/21
07/14/21
08/11/21
09/08/21
10/06/21
11/03/21
12/01/21
12/29/21
01/26/22
02/23/22
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Milling & Baking News - August 23, 2022

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