Milling & Baking News - February 21, 2023 - 36

TUES | 02 21 2023
World wheat weather assessment:
rain needed, especially in India
BY DREW LERNER
KANSAS CITY - High wheat futures
prices have been around for nearly as long
as the economic influence of COVID-19.
Much of the new crop wheat in the Northern
Hemisphere is either dormant or
semi-dormant waiting for its opportunity
to evolve and produce. As of mid-February,
assessing the prospects for 2023 wheat
production has been a little tenuous, but
it is hard to find serious problems that
cannot be fixed. The next several weeks,
though, will determine much about 2023
prospects for this key food grain.
China is the world's largest wheat producer.
Its wheat went to bed last autumn in
a mostly good environment. Weather conditions
were less severe during its autumn
planting season compared to the previous
year. Good stands are suspected, and both
soil moisture and winter precipitation
should have the crop poised to perform
quite well in the early weeks of spring.
China's late winter and early spring
should be marked by infrequent but
timely precipitation events that should
reinforce the crop's potential for aggressive
development this spring. New crop
development is not likely to be very
aggressive until April, but some greening
and early season plant development will
begin in March. Today's soil moisture suggests
the start to spring crop development
should advance relatively well.
The European Union collectively produces
another big portion of the world's
wheat. Europe weather last summer
was marred by drought, and the autumn
planting season for wheat, barley and
rye was not ideal. Rain did fall during the
autumn, and amounts were sufficient to
establish most winter crops well enough
to set the stage for a favorable start to
development in March. Europe had two
areas of persistent dryness that were a
concern for wheat establishment. The first
area was in the lower Danube River Basin,
and even though that region has had some
winter precipitation, there are still some
soil moisture shortages that must be eliminated
in the next few weeks to ensure the
best dryland production.
Eastern Spain had moisture shortages
during much of the winter, but timely
rainfall did occur often enough to support
crop establishment. However, Spain and
many areas nearby are usually the first
WORLD WHEAT EARLY SPRING CROP CHANGE POTENTIAL
in Europe to resume development, and
it will be important that timely rainfall
resumes.
Europe's winter weather has tended to
be drier and warmer than usual this year.
That has soil moisture still rated favorably,
but water supply has not been fully
restored from last summer's drought, and
some of the deep subsoil moisture is low.
That should not be a problem in Europe as
long as an active weather pattern develops
this spring providing moisture to support
production potential. Bouts of warm and
dry weather like that which has occurred
periodically during the winter could lead to
production concerns, but as of this writing
dormant winter crops are rated favorably
and should start well in the spring.
Northern Africa has not had the best
autumn or winter weather this year.
Southwestern Morocco is still in a multiyear
drought. The lack of water supply
in southwestern Morocco left most of
the wheat and barley fields in the region
unplanted since irrigation is the only way
to produce a crop. Tunisia also has struggled
with dryness this winter, although
recent rain did finally bring a little relief.
North Africa's most important weather
period is late February into April, suggesting
there is still plenty of time for
planted areas to get timely rain this
spring to support good potential yields.
Southwestern Morocco is the only exception
and will not recover from its cut
in area planted. There is some concern,
though, that northern Africa rainfall this
spring will be lighter than usual, raising a
little concern for production.
India is the world's third largest wheat
producer, and its crop is normally dependent
upon timely February rainfall and
seasonable temperatures in both February
and March to yield well. This year's
weather has not generated much precipitation,
and that likely will cut into production
somewhat. There has not been much
excessive heat, but the next few weeks will
be important. Timely rain and seasonable
36 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
bakingbusiness.com
WEATHER outlook
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Milling & Baking News - February 21, 2023

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