Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2021 - 30

TUES | 05 18 2021

USDA: Winter wheat production
forecast up 10% in 2021
WASHINGTON - In the first survey-based projection of the 2021 winter wheat crop, the US Department of
Agriculture in its May Crop Production
report forecast production in 2021 at
1,282,925,000 bus, up 111,903,000 bus, or
10%, from 1,171,022,000 bus in 2020.
The USDA winter wheat forecast was
based on a harvested area projected at

up 25% from 266,235,000 bus in 2020
and compared with 286 million bus as
the 2016-20 average outturn. The USDA
forecast for soft red winter wheat was
1,107,000 bus (a third of 1%) smaller than
the projection issued by a panel of soft
wheat millers addressing the virtual
spring conference of the North American
Millers' Association April 20. Soft red

WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASS

Change

from
Percent
- (1,000 bus) -
2021*
2020
change
2020
2019
2018
Hard winter
730,833
72,193
11%
658,640
844,947
662,249
Soft red
331,594
65,359
25%
266,235
239,771
285,558
Hard white
14,239
2,060
17%
12,179
20,266
19,347
Soft white
206,259
-27,709
-12%
233,968
211,979
216,785

2017
750,132
293,222
23,724
203,204

Source: US Department of Agriculture

*forecast

24,612,000 acres, up 7% from 23,024,000
acres in 2020, and an average yield forecast at 52.1 bus per acre, up from 50.9 bus
an acre in 2020. The average yield would
be the third highest on record if realized.
The USDA forecast hard red winter
wheat production in 2021 at 730,833,000
bus, up 11% from 658,640,000 bus in 2020.
That was based on a harvested acreage
projection up about 6% from 2020.
Soft red winter wheat production in
2021 was forecast at 331,594,000 bus,

harvested acreage was expected to be 17%
higher than in 2020, the USDA said.
Hard white winter wheat production in
2021 was forecast at 14,239,000 bus, up 17%
from 12,179,000 bus in 2020.
Soft white winter wheat production
in 2021 was forecast at 206,259,000 bus,
down 12% from 233,968,000 bus in 2020.
Winter wheat on May 9 in the 18 major
production states was rated 49% good to
excellent by the USDA, four percentage
points lower than the same week in

First 2022 wheat carryover
forecast at 774 million bus
WASHINGTON - The US Department of
Agriculture on May 12, in its initial wheat
supply-and-demand forecasts for 2021-22 as
presented in the May World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates report,
projected the carryover of wheat on June
1, 2022, at 774 million bus, down 98 million
bus, or 11%, from an upwardly revised 872
million bus forecast for 2021 and compared
with 1,028 million bus in 2000. If the forecast is realized, the 2022 carryover would

MILLING & BAKING NEWS

be the lowest in seven years. The average
of pre-report trade estimates for the 2022
carryover was 730 million bus.
The carry-in supply for 2021-22 (equating
to the 2021 carryover) was raised 20 million
bus from the April outlook as the USDA lowered its forecast for 2020-21 wheat exports
by 20 million bus, to 965 million, and its
forecast for food use of wheat in 2020-21
by 5 million bus, to 960 million bus. The
lower use forecasts more than offset a lower

2020. Across the United States, 38% of the
winter wheat crop was headed by May 9,
eight percentage points behind the 201620 average pace of 46%.
Good-to-excellent conditions on May
9 were 53% in Kansas, 59% in Oklahoma
and 30% in Texas. A late-April cold snap
lasting several days may have been detrimental to conditions in those states,
and affected winter wheat development
through the middle Mississippi Valley
as well.
Winter wheat producers in south central Texas were gearing up for harvest by
May 9, the USDA in Austin said.
The farm operator survey behind the
USDA forecasts was conducted between
April 23 and May 6 to gather information
on expected yield as of May 1. The survey
sampled about 10,500 producers in all
major production areas by phone, mail,
online or personal interviews.
The USDA explained its survey technique thusly: " Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported
acreage data and seek permission to
randomly locate two sample plots in
selected winter wheat fields. The counts
made within each sample plot depended
upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as
number of stalks, heads in late boot and
number of emerged heads were made to
predict the number of heads that would be
harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop
a projected biological yield. The average
harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a
net yield. " MBN
projection for 2020-21 wheat imports at 105
million bus, down 5 million from April.
The outlook for 2021-22 included a
2021 wheat production forecast at 1,872
million bus, up 46 million bus, or 3%, from
1,826 million bus in 2020 and compared
with 1,932 million bus in 2019. The production forecast incorporated the first
survey-based winter wheat production
projection of the season at 1,283 million
bus. This figure inferred a spring wheat,
including durum, outturn in 2021 at 589
million bus. The spring wheat outlook
was based on a planted area as presented
in the Prospective Plantings report issued
CONTINUED ON PAGE 33
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