Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2021 - 36

Canada Prairies, North
Dakota still waiting on rain
BY DREW LERNER

A

recent storm system brought
some badly needed dryness relief
to crop areas from Alberta to
South Dakota. However, the remainder
of Canada's Prairies and most of North
Dakota are still hurting for moisture. The
earliest that some relief may occur in the
remaining dry area is after May 20, and it
will take more than a single storm to put
down this year's drought.
Relative humidity has been running
between 15% and 25% during the afternoons recently across Canada's Prairies.
The dryness is a reflection of the widely
swinging temperatures of late and indicative of the severity of drought prevailing.
Cold air dominated the first half of May
in the Prairies and a part of the northern
US Plains and Upper Midwest. Frequent
freezes were noted and occurred because
of low humidity and generally clear
skies. Temperatures fell into the teens
Fahrenheit often in the Prairies and into
the 20s in North Dakota, limiting new
crop development and restricting some
planting activity. Just a few weeks earlier
temperatures were well above average,
and the pendulum will swing back that
way again late in the second week of May
and into the third week as a storm system

approaches from the west.
The season's first significant blocking
weather pattern was noted over Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the first
week of May. The block was strong and
persistent, forcing Alberta's significant
precipitation event in the second weekend
of May southeastward into the northwestern US Plains and then farther to the
southeast into the central and lower Midwest. Under normal circumstances that
Alberta storm would have moved across
Canada's Prairies and the northern US
Plains offering up the season's first significant rain event.
A second blocking pattern was
expected to evolve across the Prairies
and northern US Plains after May 15,
and it will persist until May 20. During
that period of time hot temperatures are
expected to evolve with the season's first
80-degree highs occurring broadly in the
drought-stricken areas of the Prairies and
across parts of North Dakota. The heat
will come with low relative humidity and
some wind, and that is likely to raise some
serious concerns for farms throughout
this drought region. Too much wind, low
humidity and warm temperatures are
exactly what producers do not want to see

AVERAGE 7-DAY TOPSOIL MOISTURE
ENDED MAY 11, 2021

36

MILLING & BAKING NEWS	

at this point in time. A general soaking
rain is needed.
Serious droughts are difficult to break
down, and this one still extends from
Mexico through the majority of the western United States to the eastern Canada
Prairies. Summer is quickly approaching,
and with it comes warmer temperatures
and faster drying rates in areas that fail
to get moisture. Portions of Saskatchewan
are in their fourth year of drought, and
soil moisture is lacking deeply into the
ground. Manitoba has not been as dry for
as long of a period, but the moisture depletion is becoming quite significant, and
some farmers may soon have to decide
whether they will attempt to plant the late
season crops like corn, flax and soybeans.
Many producers are expected to plant in
order to collect insurance payments, and
with futures prices so high most will try
hard to get seed into the ground. A notable
rain event is a must if there is going to be
any chance for crops to develop normally.
Dryness is not the only source of fear
spreading through the Prairies and parts
of North Dakota. There is some worry of
returning frost and freezes later in May and/
or early June. This fear comes from the dry
conditions that are prevailing in the atmosphere. Some cooling is expected in these
areas during late May and June, and if the
humidity remains critically low, temperatures could fall low enough to damage canola
and a few other crops that might advance
on limited soil moisture during the warm
period of May 15-20.
	 Rain prospects are expected to
improve during the second half of May
and into early June. The first big prerequisite for getting rain into the region is to
bring the jet stream farther to the north.
Most storm systems impacting North
America in recent weeks have been coming into the US Pacific Northwest before
dropping to the southeast across the
Rocky Mountain region and then turning
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WEATHER update

TUES | 05 18 2021
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Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2021

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