Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2021 - 40

TUES | 05 18 2021

First-quarter flour production off
sharply from January-March 2020

40

MILLING & BAKING NEWS	

The 24-hour flour production capacity
in the first quarter totaled 1,585,262 cwts,
down 41,998 cwts from 1,627,260 a year
earlier. It was 1,585,310 cwts in the fourth
quarter of 2020. The high was 1,674,210 cwts
in the third quarter of 2019, and capacity has
been reduced 88,948 cwts since then.
Grind in the quarter was 86% of
six-day capacity, down from 87.6% in
the fourth quarter of 2020 and 86.3%
in the first. In fact, all quarters since
October-December 2019 have been at or
above 85% except for April-June 81.5%.
Working days in the first quarter

totaled 76, compared with 77 days in the
fourth quarter and a year ago.
While showing a sizable upward
revision in 2020 first-quarter flour production, the USDA in its 2020 Summary
for Flour Milling Products otherwise
made no other significant changes in
its estimates for last year. Minuscule
wheat grind changes were made, but a
number of capacity revisions took place
throughout the year, some quite sizable.
In the summary, also issued May 3,
NASS pegged the 2020 output
at 425,797,000 cwts, up 3,520,000, or

in 1,000 cwts

QUARTERLY FLOUR PRODUCTION: 12-MONTH CHANGE
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-5,000

First-quarter 2021 change = -4,543
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source: US Department of Agriculture; NASS

FIRST-QUARTER US WHEAT FLOUR PRODUCTION
110,000
First-quarter 2021 = 103,634
105,000

100,000

95,000

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

Source: US Department of Agriculture; NASS

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in 1,000 cwts

WASHINGTON - Flour production in
January-March 2021 totaled 103,634,000
cwts, down 4,543,000 cwts, or 4.2%, from
a revised 108,177,000 in the first quarter
of 2020, according to data issued May 3 by
the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the US Department of Agriculture.
Flour production was down 3,353,000
cwts, or 3.1%, from 106,987,000 in October-December 2020.
The drop of 4.5 million cwts was the
largest year-to-year fall in quarterly flour
production in more than 18 years - since
October-December 2002, when production
retreated 5,531,000 cwts from October-December 2001.
Widening the spread between the two
years, the January-March 2020 figure
was revised upward by NASS by 459,000
cwts, to a quarterly record at 108,177,000
cwts topping the fourth quarter of 2019 at
107,920,000 cwts. Last year's first quarter
was the first time in 35 years in which
production in a January-March quarter
exceeded flour production the preceding
three months,
At 103,634,000 cwts, first-quarter flour
production in 2021 was the fifth largest
for January-March and up slightly from
103,600,000 cwts in January-March 2019; it
was down 1.9% from 105,612,000 in 2018, the
second highest for the quarter. It compared
with 104,705,000 cwts in 2017, the third
largest and 103,909,000 in 2016, the fourth.
The 12-month rolling flour production total (April 2020-March 2021) was
421,254,000 cwts, down 5.6 million, or 1.3%,
from 426,854,000 a year ago. The 12-month
aggregate was the smallest since the start
of NASS compilations and available data
back to the first of 2013 at 419,834,000. It
also was down 4,543,000, or 1.1%, from the
prior quarter's 12-month total. The record
was 428,142,000 in April-June 2018.
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Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2021

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