Milling & Baking News - May 18, 2021 - 50

MARKET trends

TUES

|

05 18 2021

Wheat Futures

KC JULY WHEAT AND CHICAGO JULY CORN SPREAD
bus in 2021. It would be
the smallest carryover in
$2.00
seven years. The USDA
$1.50
forecast all-wheat pro$1.00
duction in 2021 at 1,872
million bus, up 3% from
$0.50
1,826 million bus in 2020.
$0
At the same time, the
USDA projected world
-$0.50
wheat ending stocks in
-$1.00
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May JuneJuly Aug.Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
2021-22 at 294.96 mil2020
2021
lion tonnes, up slightly
July
contract,
cents
per
bu
from the forecast for the
current year. The USDA
With KC wheat futures trading below Chicago
projected world wheat
corn futures, it was cheaper to feed livestock
exports in 2021-22 at a
wheat than corn across the southern Plains.
record 202.42 million
tonnes, up 2.77 million
tonnes from 2020-21, but it forecast lower US
compared with 48% a week earlier and 53%
wheat exports in the year.
a year ago.
The USDA in its weekly Crop Progress
The USDA in its Export Sales report said
report said the spring wheat crop was 70%
during the week ended May 6, net export
planted by May 9 compared with 51% as
sales of US wheat for delivery in 2020-21
the recent five-year average for the date.
totaled only 30,300 tonnes, and sales for delivMeanwhile, winter wheat condition ratings
ery in 2021-22 totaled 268,000 tonnes. MBN
seemed to have hit a wall showing little
Millfeed
change for yet another week. The USDA
rated 49% of the crop as good to excellent
Prices were unchanged to higher in
moderate trading. The market continued to
strengthen as steady feed demand met easWHEAT FUTURES
ing flour mill runtimes.
Season's
	
	 - Change from -	 	 Week's	Year
Logistical challenges were mighty for
High		Low	
	
May 14	 May 7	 Apr. 30	 High	
Low	
ago
some traders. Even as spring hauling of fertilKansas City						
May	6.51¾	 -76c	-46½c	7.13¼	6.51¾	4.89 7.34¾	(04-27-21)	 4.41¾	(08-07-20)
izer waned, trucks and willing drivers were
July	6.57¾	 -79c	-45¾c	 7.36	 6.51	4.52¼ 7.41½	 (05-07-21)	4.49¾	(08-07-20)
relatively scarce. Fuel surcharges increased,
7.45¼	(05-07-21)	4.59½	(08-07-20)
September	
6.63	-77½c	-44¼c	7.39¼	6.56¼	4.58¾
and shortages kept some rigs parked for the
December	6.70½	-76¼c	-42¾c	7.44¼	6.63½	4.70½ 7.51¼	 (05-07-21)	4.72¼	(08-07-20)
week after a cyberattack on a major pipeline
			
Chicago						
May	7.27¼	-46¼c	-15¼c	 7.69	7.27¼	5.25¼ 7.73	 (04-27-21)	4.94¼	(06-26-20)
generated panic fuel buying that created
July	7.07¼	-54½c	-27½c	7.60¾	6.90¾	5.00¼ 7.69½	(04-27-21)	4.96¼	(06-26-20)
shortages in some Southeast states. Some staSeptember	7.06½	-55¾c	-25¾c	7.60¼	6.90¼	5.03 7.67½	(05-07-21)	5.03¾	(06-26-20)
tions limited trucks to 50-gallon fill-ups.
December	7.09¾	-55½c	 -23c	7.63½	6.94¼	5.12¾ 7.70½	(05-07-21)	 5.14	(06-26-20)
Feed demand was mostly steady week
			
Minneapolis						
over week, and millfeed was well-placed
May	7.45¼	-43¾c	 -18c	 7.48	7.45¼	5.53¾ 7.89	 (05-07-21)	5.30¼	(08-17-20)
July	7.40¾	-56¾c	 -23c	7.96½	7.40¾	5.06¼ 8.07¼	(05-07-21)	5.40½	(08-12-20)
in animal diets, traders said. There were
September	7.46½	-56¼c	-21¾c	8.01¼	7.46½	5.18 8.10¾	(05-07-21)	5.49¾	(08-12-20)
indications midds usage was set to ramp up,
December	7.50¼	 -54c	 -18c	 8.01	7.50¼	5.31¼ 8.10	 (05-07-21)	5.61½	(08-13-20)
especially in the east, where dairy opera$ per bu; change in cents per bu
tions were considering larger inclusion
BULK MIDDLINGS
rates to replace high-priced cottonseed, glu	
- Change from -	Year		
ten feed and corn.
Spot
	 May	
May 7	
Apr. 30	
ago	
June	
July-Sept.	 Oct.-Dec.
Lackluster cattle feed demand and range
Kansas City	
140	 @	 150 140	@	150	 +20	@	+20	+30	@	+30	 80	@	90	 145	@	155	 150	@	160	 162	@	172
cube business in Texas indicated some lingerSouthwest, f.o.b. truck	
175	 @	 185 175	 @	185	 +25	@	+25	 +35	@	+35	 100	@	110	 170	@	180	 155	@	165	 155	@	165
ing weakness in the Southwest. But demand
Minneapolis	
159	 @	169 159	@	169	 +25	@	+25	+47	@	+47	 94	@	104	 154	@	164	 167	@	177	 167	@	177
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck	 155	 @	 165 155	@	165	 +25	@	+25	+47	@	+47	 90	@	100	 150	@	160	 163	@	173	 163	@	173
in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas perked up,
Chicago West	
172	 @	 182 172	 @	182	 +25	@	+25	+47	@	+47	 107	@	117	 167	@	177	 180	@	190	 180	@	190
pushing prices higher as flour grind eased.
Central states, f.o.b truck	 155	 @	 165 155	@	165	 +15	@	+15	 +15	@	+15	 90	@	100	 150	@	160	 145	@	155	 135	@	145
Millfeed was $140 a ton in Kansas City
Buffalo	
130	 @	140 130	@	140	 +10	@	+10	 +10	@	+10	 85	@	95	 130	@	140	 125	@	135	 120	@	130
and $159 in Minneapolis, on a rail basis, comSoutheast	
140	 @	160 140	@	160	 0	@	+10	 0	@	+10	 95	@	105	 140	@	150	 135	@	145	 140	@	150
N. & S. California	
179	 @	 194 179	@	194	 +15	@	+15	 +15	@	+15	 134	@	149	 174	@	189	 174	@	189	 174	@	189
pared with corn at $254 a ton and sorghum
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck	
175	 @	 190 175	 @	190	 +15	@	+15	 +15	@	+15	 130	@	145	 170	@	185	 170	@	185	 170	@	185
at $259 a ton, both KC. Corn gluten feed was
115	@	125	 110	@	120	 95	@	105	 95	@	105
Pacific Northwest	
120	 @	 135 115	 @	125		-			-		
$5 lower at $245 a ton, dried distillers' grain
Upper Midwest, sacked		320
was $2 lower at $260 a ton and dehydrated
Wheat germ	
210	 @	 230
alfalfa was steady at $300 a ton, all KC. MBN
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted

Wheat futures plunged last week, retreating from recent or even multiyear highs
posted the previous week.
Corn futures, tumbling in the wake of
unexpectedly bearish US Department of
Agriculture forecasts for 2021-22 corn supply and demand, exerted a powerful downward tug on wheat futures. Also pressuring
the wheat market were profit-taking once
wheat futures reached nosebleed levels,
strong progress in spring wheat planting
and a lackluster Export Sales report.
In its first survey-based forecast of the season, the USDA projected 2021 winter wheat
production at 1,282,925,000 bus, up 10% from
1,171,022,000 bus in 2020. The hard red winter
wheat crop was forecast at 730,833,000 bus,
up 11% from 2020. The soft red winter wheat
crop was forecast at 331,594,000 bus, up 25%
from 266,235,000 bus in 2020.
The USDA in its May World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates report provided its first forecasts for the 2021-22 marketing year, which contained mixed signals
for the wheat market. The USDA projected
the US carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at
774 million bus, down 11% from 872 million

50

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