Milling & Baking News - May 2, 2023 - 35

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405-million-bu soft red crop
would be largest in nine years
came off in a timely manner and wheat was
sown in a timely manner, ahead of the average
pace, but into dry ground, " Mr. McAllister
said. The region " got rain in late October
and throughout the month of November
before an extremely mild winter, especially
Indiana, Ohio, southern Michigan. Not
much snow cover, but we weren't dealing
with chilly temperatures too much. Wheat
to 80%/20% or even 85%/15%, but I'm erring
on the side of caution a little bit. "
He forecast the Ohio crop at 47,005,000
bus based on a forecast of 595,000 harvested
acres and a yield at 79 bus an acre. The
Indiana crop was forecast at 30,800,000
bus based on 385,000 harvested acres and
a yield of 80 bus an acre. He forecast the
Michigan winter wheat crop at 47,200,000
prices that we were seeing at planting, "
he said, forecasting Illinois production at
59,063,000 bus based on harvested acres at
787,500 and a yield of 75 bus an acre.
A dry summer left plenty of residual
nitrogen in the ground in Kentucky and
Tennessee, Mr. Schwinke said. High
nitrogen levels can lead to elevated
lodging, in which grain plants bend over
near ground level, making harvest more
difficult and decreasing yields. That
remained a concern, but many growers
were applying a plant growth regulator to
strengthen stems, increase stems' diameter
and decrease lodging. Both states
posted an overnight freeze back in March,
" and that did flip some of the earlier varieties
that had the main tillers, but there is
a good enough root mass throughout that
plant that the secondary tillers certainly
compensated for that and we really didn't
see much of an issue, " he said.
Kentucky production was forecast at
32,409,300 bus based on 420,900 harvested
acres and a yield of 77 bus an acre.
Tennessee winter wheat production
was forecast at 25,392,000 bus based on
368,000 harvested acres and a yield of 69
bus an acre.
The Missouri crop " all looks pretty
From left: Jay McAllister, The Mennel Milling Co., Fostoria, Ohio; panel chairman Carl Schwinke, Siemer
Milling Co, Teutopolis, Ill.; Andrew Rutter, Bartlett, a Savage Company, Kansas City; Mark Rossol, The
Andersons Inc., Maumee, Ohio; and Patrick Deppa, Ardent Mills, Denver.
came out of dormancy looking wonderful,
good stands for the most part as growers
get ready to top dress. "
Mr. McAllister trimmed planted area
estimates as contained in the US Department
of Agriculture's March 31 Prospective
Plantings report for Indiana, Michigan
and Wisconsin. He estimated Indiana
winter wheat planted area at 425,000
acres versus 440,000 as estimated by the
USDA, Michigan winter wheat area at
650,000 acres compared with the USDA
estimate of 670,000 acres, and Wisconsin
area at 285,000 acres planted versus
290,000 as the USDA's estimate.
The red-white ratio was a source of
some dispute in Michigan, where Mr.
McAllister forecast harvested area at
385,000 acres, yield at 80 bus an acre and
total production at 47,200,000 bus.
" I'm calling the breakdown 75% red, 25%
white, " he said. " That number was a bit
challenging. Talking to some Michigan
people, they feel like that number is closer
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bus (35,440,000 bus soft red winter and
11,760,000 bus soft white winter) based on
590,000 harvested acres and an average
yield of 80 bus an acre. He forecast the Wisconsin
winter wheat crop at 18,375,000 bus,
including 17,775,000 bus of soft red winter
wheat and 563,000 bus of soft white winter,
using a 75-bu-per-acre yield.
Mr. Schwinke forecast soft red winter
wheat production in the Midwest states
(Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee)
at 156,854,000 bus, up 32,868,000 bus,
or 27%, from 123,049,000 bus in 2022. He
accepted the USDA's planted area figure
of 610,000 acres in Kentucky and 860,000
acres in Missouri but said he used lower
planted area for Illinois (875,000 acres
versus USDA's 880,000) and for Tennessee
(460,000 acres versus USDA's 470,000).
An Illinois cold spell in March " slowed
down the crop a little bit, which is probably
a good thing, but the weather has warmed
up and we've seen planted areas up significantly
in all the areas due to the higher
good, though there was some freeze effect
in the Southeast, " Mr. Schwinke said. He
forecast Missouri winter wheat production
at 39,990,000 bus based on 645,000
harvested acres (75% of what was planted)
and a projected yield of 62 bus an acre.
Mr. Rutter projected the Southeast soft
red winter wheat crop at 59,432,000 bus,
up 1,112,000 bus, or 2%, from 2022. Within
the region, production decreases forecast
for Georgia and South Carolina were
more than offset by projected increases in
Alabama, Mississippi and North Carolina.
This region " had favorable weather in
the fall for row crop harvest and drier
conditions as planting progressed, so
our growers were able to get the wheat
sown timely, " Mr. Rutter said. " After it
was planted, we started to get some muchneeded
rain and moisture levels built back
up into those areas and saw that continually
throughout the winter season and
early spring. Our topsoil and soil moisture
conditions are in very adequate to surplus
levels, so crops have maintained very good
conditions in the Southeast.
" Temperatures have been relatively
moderate. There was a limited freeze in
late winter, but also temperate highs as
MILLING & BAKING NEWS 35
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