Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 41

IGC forecasts 6% decrease in
global flour trade in 2021-22
LONDON - With shipments to parts of
Asia falling short of expectations, the
International Grains Council's (IGC) forecast
for global wheat flour trade in 202122
has been reduced by 900,000 tonnes
(wheat equivalent), to 13.9 million tonnes,
a decrease of 6%.
The report, issued by the IGC on April
21, showed that the figure for the current
year, which ends June 30, was slightly
higher than last year's 13.7 million tonnes
traded but still nearly 4 million tonnes
below the record set in 2016-17.
The IGC said the bulk of the quarterly
revision is linked to reduced outlooks in
what traditionally have been the world's
top wheat importers. Iraqi imports are
forecast to fall 500,000 from the previous
quarter, and Afghanistan's projected
intake is expected to fall by 300,000
tonnes.
" Nonetheless, imports by Iraq are still
expected to post a sizeable increase yearon-year,
to 2.2 million tonnes (up from 1.9
million last year), following a disappointing
domestic wheat harvest, " the IGC said.
A year-on-year decrease of flour
imports by Afghanistan, from 2.5 million
tonnes to 1.7 million, largely may be
traced to a 22% drop in shipments from
Kazakhstan, which has limited wheat
and flour exports due to food security
The International Grains Council's (IGC) forecast
for global wheat flour trade in 2021-22 has been
reduced by 900,000 tonnes (wheat equivalent), to
13.9 million tonnes, a decline of 6%.
concerns since the start of the Russia-Ukraine
war in February.
The IGC noted that projections for
smaller flour importers such as China,
Syria, Yemen and parts of sub-Saharan
Africa also are revised downward based
on the pace of accumulated arrivals.
In addition to Kazakhstan, other major
exporters downgraded from the previous
forecast are Turkey (down 600,000
tonnes), Ukraine (down 300,000 tonnes)
In initial forecast, IGC predicts
grain carryover drop for 2023
LONDON - Global ending stocks of
grains in 2023 will total 581 million
tonnes, down 27 million tonnes, or 4.4%,
from a revised 608 million tonnes in 2022,
according to an initial forecast issued
April 21 by the International Grains Council.
If realized, the carryover would be the
smallest since 553.7 million tonnes in 2015.
The Council called its preliminary forecast
for 2022-23 " especially tentative given
the conflict in the Black Sea region. "
" Despite larger carry-in
stocks, world grains supply
(production plus opening
stocks) is forecast to contract
slightly on a comparatively
steeper drop
in output, placed almost
1% lower year-over-year
bakingbusiness.com
at 2,275 million tonnes. While consumption
growth is forecast to be slower than
average, end-season inventories are seen
sharply down. "
At 2,275 million tonnes, production in
GLOBAL
2022-23 GRAIN
CROP
2022-23 would be down 12 million tonnes
from 2021-22. Consumption was forecast
at 2,302 million tonnes, up 21 million
tonnes, or under 1%, from the year before.
Global grain trade was projected at 407
million tonnes in 2022-23, down 17
million tonnes, or 2.2%, from
416 million tonnes.
The largest factor in
2,275 MILLION
TONNES
MILLING & BAKING NEWS 41
the projected carryover
decrease was a drop
predicted for corn. The
Council said ending
stocks of corn in 2023 will
and Egypt (down 200,000 tonnes).
India, which recently has emerged as a
significant wheat exporter, also is taking
on a bigger role in flour exports.
" At around 400,000 tonnes, India's
wheat flour shipments in the July-January
period already exceed its full-year volume
of 2020-21, with sizeable year-on-year
increases in deliveries to Indonesia, the
UAE, Sri Lanka and parts of sub-Saharan
Africa, " the IGC said.
In the IGC's initial outlook for 2022-23,
it forecasts global flour trade to expand by
6%, to 14.8 million tonnes, including larger
imports from Iraq, " where poor production
prospects are likely to keep import
needs at a historically high level. "
Imports by Afghanistan also are projected
to edge higher in the upcoming
season, assuming a rebound in shipments
from its key supplier, Kazakhstan.
The Council foresees Turkey remaining
the world's largest exporter in 202223,
with a projected increase in shipments
supported by a potentially larger wheat
harvest and strong overseas demand.
If realized, the IGC's projection for
wheat flour trade in 2022-23 would be
the largest since 14.7 million tonnes were
shipped in 2019-20. MBN
total 265 million tonnes, down 21 million
tonnes, or 7%, from 286 million tonnes in
2021-22. Corn production in 2022-23 was
forecast at 1,197 million tonnes, down 13
million tonnes, or 1%, from 1,210 million.
Wheat ending stocks for 2023 were
forecast at 277 million tonnes, down 5 million
tonnes, or 1.8%, from the year before.
The global wheat crop was forecast at 780
million tonnes in 2022-23, versus 781 million
tonnes in 2021-22.
The IGC did not publish specific figures
for leading grain exporters, including
Ukraine and Russia.
For 2021-22, changes in the IGC forecasts
from the March 17 report were modest.
The total grain carryover in 2022 was
forecast at 608 million tonnes, up 1 million
tonnes from the month before and up 1%
from 601 million in 2021. The wheat carryover
was projected at 282 million tonnes,
up 1 million tonnes from the March projection
and up 3 million tonnes, or 1.1%, from
279 million tonnes in 2021. MBN
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