Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2022 - 34

MARKET trends
per bu
TUES | 1 0 18 2022
Wheat Futures
Wheat futures declined last week amid
whipsaw price movements spurred mainly
by concerns about sustained grain exports
from Ukraine and US Department of Agriculture
data.
Russian President Vladimir Putin again
roiled the markets when he threatened
to withdraw from the July 22 agreement
allowing a humanitarian corridor for grain
exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
Wheat futures moved higher on the news
Thursday but closed sharply lower Friday
on hopes the agreement would hold.
Renewed strength in the value of the US dollar
added further pressure late in the week.
Offering spillover support to wheat
futures were firmer corn and soybean
prices after the USDA lowered 2022 production
forecasts for both crops in its Oct. 12
Crop Production report.
The USDA supply-and-demand data issued
Oct. 12 offered mixed signals to the wheat
market. The USDA forecast US wheat carryover
on June 1, 2023, at 576 million bus,
down 34 million bus from September and the
lowest since 2008. But the trade had expected
an even lower carryover number and futures
- Change from -
Oct. 14
Kansas City
December
March
May
July
Chicago
December
March
May
July
Minneapolis
December
March
May
July
9.52¼ -16½c
9.50¾ -15½c
9.49 -15¾c
9.40 -10¾c
8.59¾ -20½c
8.77
-18c
8.85½ -17¾c
8.80¾ -15¾c
9.54¼ -13¾c
9.63 -12¾c
9.69 -11½c
9.68
-11¾c
$ per bu; change in cents per bu
Spot
Kansas City
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
Minneapolis
235 @ 245
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 250 @ 260
Chicago West
267 @ 277
Central states, f.o.b truck 250 @ 260
Buffalo
210 @ 225
Southeast
N. & S. California
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck
Pacific Northwest
Upper Midwest, sacked
Wheat germ
160 @ 170
320
...
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
34 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
BULK MIDDLINGS
- Change from -
Oct.
230 @ 240
280 @ 290 280 @ 290
254 @ 264 254 @ 264
250 @ 260
267 @ 277
250 @ 260
210 @ 220 210 @ 220
215 @ 230 215 @ 230
211 @ 226 211 @ 226
170 @ 180
Oct. 7
-
-
-
-
-
-
210 @ 220 -5 @ -5
-
-
-
-
Sept. 30
-
-
-
Year
ago
dropped after the report.
Also bearish was the
USDA's 2022-23 US wheat
export forecast of 775
million bus, down 50 million
bus from September
and the lowest since 197172.
Feed and residual use
of wheat in 2022-23 was
lowered by 30 million
bus from September to 50
million bus based on first
quarter (June-August)
disappearance indicated
in the Sept. 30 Grain
Stocks report that was
the lowest since 1983-84.
The USDA in its weekly Export Sales
$6.50
$7.50
$8.50
$9.50
$10.50
$11.50
$12.50
$13.50
$14.50
DECEMBER WHEAT FUTURES
Minneapolis
KC
Chicago
Oct. Nov. Jan.
2022
Feb. April May July Aug. Sept.
KC wheat futures have been the price leader of the
wheat classes in part due to concerns about dry
planting conditions with high drought levels in most
states across the major HRW wheat growing region.
Dry conditions continued to plague
report said net sales of US wheat in the week
ended Oct. 6 for delivery in 2022-23 totaled
211,800 tonnes with Japan and Thailand
the principal buyers. Sales were at the low
end of trade expectations that ranged from
200,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
The US winter wheat crop in the 18 major
states was 55% planted as of Oct. 9, slightly
behind the five-year average of 58%. The crop
was 26% emerged, behind 32% as the average.
WHEAT FUTURES
Week's
Oct. 7 Sept. 30 High
Low
Year
ago
-39¼c 10.37½ 9.50¾ 7.43¾
-34½c 10.32½ 9.49¾ 7.50¾
-30½c 10.27¾ 9.48 7.53¾
-13½c
10.07
-61¾c
-55c
9.39 7.45¾
9.49¾ 8.57¼ 7.34
9.62
8.75 7.46½
-51¼c 9.66¾ 8.83¾ 7.50¼
-31½c
9.49½ 8.79¼ 7.38¼
-27¾c 10.24¼ 9.52¼ 9.68¾
-22c 10.29½ 9.61½ 9.57¼
-17¼c 10.32¾ 9.68 9.39¾
-10¾c 10.25¾ 9.68 9.17¾
Season's
High
Low
13.76¾ (05-17-22) 4.72¼ (08-07-20)
13.62½ (05-17-22) 4.86½ (08-12-20)
13.26¼ (05-17-22) 4.88¼ (08-12-20)
13.79¼ (05-17-22) 4.88¾ (06-26-20)
12.82
12.94
12.84
(05-17-22)
14.25¼ (03-07-22)
(03-07-22)
14.00
5.14
5.27
5.27
(06-26-20)
(08-13-19)
(08-13-19)
(05-17-22) 5.16¼ (05-18-20)
(05-17-22) 5.61½ (08-13-20)
13.90¼ (05-17-22) 5.74½ (09-09-20)
13.58¾ (05-17-22) 5.74½ (09-18-20)
14.12¾ (05-17-22)
6.06¾ (01-12-21)
most of the hard red winter wheat growing
region, providing support to KC wheat
futures. MBN
Millfeed
Millfeed prices were steady to slightly
lower last week as flour grind improved in
some locations and millfeed supplies accumulated.
Most
markets sat affixed between busy
summer creep feeding and catfish eating
seasons and the winter months where
livestock producers scurry to keep pace
with animals' cold-weather-spiked appetites.
Traders reported most buyers were
well covered through November, but they
expected end users to chew through carryover
loads by the time colder weather sets in.
Softened demand made for calm markets,
Nov.-Dec.
Jan.-Mar.
Apr.-June
+5 @ +5 160 @ 170 230 @ 240 220 @ 230 150 @ 160
+5 @ +5 210 @ 220 255 @ 265 255 @ 265 195 @ 205
154 @ 164 254 @ 264 234 @ 244 194 @ 204
150 @ 160 250 @ 260 230 @ 240 190 @ 200
167 @ 177 267 @ 277 232 @ 242 207 @ 217
+10 @ +10 110 @ 120 240 @ 250 220 @ 230 160 @ 170
100 @ 110 200 @ 210 210 @ 220 160 @ 170
135 @ 145 210 @ 220 200 @ 210 180 @ 190
174 @ 189 220 @ 235 220 @ 235 215 @ 230
170 @ 185 216 @ 231 216 @ 231
120 @ 130 180 @ 190 180 @ 190
-
-
-
-
-
211 @ 226
...
but consistent difficulties with flour mill
run times in several major locations placed
a firm floor under easing values. Consistent
flour demand ahead of the busy holiday
baking period kept several mills grinding
at a steady pace. But a few traders said some
mills were pulling back their flour production
and canceling weekend run times,
reasoning that high inflation was chipping
away discretionary flour demand particularly
in the foodservice sector.
The situation created uneven markets,
and a mishmash of disproportionate flour
demand and scattered run time efficiencies
kept things " fuzzy " for millfeed users who
were content to stick to the sidelines for now.
Millfeed was $235 a ton in Kansas City and
$254 in Minneapolis, on a rail basis, compared
to corn at $263 a ton and sorghum at $249 a
ton, both KC. Corn gluten feed dropped $5 to
$285 a ton KC. Dried distillers' grain dropped
$10 to $290 a ton KC. Dehydrated alfalfa was
unchanged with no offer in KC. MBN
bakingbusiness.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com
Milling & Baking News - October 18, 2022

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