Milling & Baking News - October 5, 2021 - 42

MARKET trends
TUES | 10 05 202 1
Wheat Futures
Wheat futures advanced last week as surprisingly
bullish US Department of Agriculture
estimates issued Sept. 30 for wheat offset
early losses. Wheat futures slumped on Tuesday,
Sept. 28, as part of a retreat across most
agricultural futures that was sparked by a
plunge in equity markets as some members
of Congress dithered even as the Treasury
Department warned of dire consequences
in the event the United States failed to raise
the debt limit to ensure the country didn't
fall into default. Wheat futures remained in
negative territory until the Sept. 30 spike,
when supply-and-demand fundamentals
commanded the market's attention.
The USDA in its Small Grains 2021 Summary
lowered its 2021 production estimates
for both winter wheat and spring wheat other
than durum. The lower spring wheat estimate,
at 331.1 million bus, down 12.7 million
bus from the August forecast, was expected
given the drought, but the lower winter
wheat estimate at 1,277.4 million bus, down
41.4 million bus from August, most definitely
was not. In response, Kansas hard red winter
wheat futures led the post-report rally.
The USDA in its quarterly Grain Stocks
- Change from -
Kansas City
December
March
May
July
Chicago
December
March
May
July
Minneapolis
December
March
May
July
7.66½ +38¾c +44¾c
7.67½ +35½c
+41c
7.49½ +30c +32¾c
7.55¼ +31½c +46½c
7.66 +31¼c +46¼c
7.68¼ +30¼c +45½c
7.41¼ +25¼c +37½c
9.29
$ per bu; change in cents per bu
Spot
Kansas City
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
Minneapolis
Central states, f.o.b truck
Buffalo
Southeast
N. & S. California
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck
Pacific Northwest
Upper Midwest, sacked
Wheat germ
150 @ 160
200 @ 210
174 @ 184
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 170 @ 180
Chicago West
187 @ 197
140 @ 150
130 @ 140
140 @ 150
174 @ 189
170 @ 185
125 @ 135
320
210 @ 230
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
42 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
BULK MIDDLINGS
- Change from -
Oct.
Sept. 24
-
-
-
Sept. 17
Year
ago
+13c +28½c
9.17¼ +14½c +28½c
9.04½ +14¾c
8.87¼ +14c +26¼c
report said Sept. 1 wheat
stocks in all positions
totaled 1,780 million bus,
down 18% from a year
ago and a 14-year low.
The stocks estimate compared
with 1,852 million
bus as the average of
pre-report trade estimates.
The lower stocks
estimate mostly reflected
the lower all-wheat
production estimate for
2021 at 1,646 million bus,
down 51 million bus from
the August forecast.
The USDA in its
CHICAGO DECEMBER WHEAT FUTURES
VS US DOLLAR INDEX
86
89
92
95
98
June
2021
July
Aug.
US dollar index
Sept.
Chicago wheat futures (per bu)
The recent rise in the value of the dollar, which
makes US export goods more expensive, has exerted
downward pressure on wheat futures.
weekly Crop Progress
report said 34% of the 2022 winter wheat
crop was planted by Sept. 26 compared with
21% a week earlier and 32% as the recent fiveyear
average for the date. Emergence was
pegged at 9% versus 8% as the average for
the date.
The USDA in its weekly Export Sales
report said in the week ended Sept. 23 net
export sales of wheat for delivery in 2021-22
totaled 290,000 tonnes, down 19% from the
WHEAT FUTURES
Week's
Oct. 1 Sept. 24 Sept. 17 High
7.59½ +39¾c +46½c
Low
Year
ago
7.61¾ 7.03 5.09½
7.68¾ 7.11½ 5.18½
7.68¾ 7.15½ 5.25¼
7.03
7.51
5.31
7.58½ 7.01¼ 5.73¼
7.69
7.14 5.79½
7.71½ 7.18¾ 5.83½
7.44½ 7.03½ 5.81
9.35
9.22
9.01½ 5.31¾
8.88 5.44¾
+28c 9.08½ 8.71¾ 5.54¼
8.90½ 8.58½ 5.63¼
Season's
High
7.69
Low
(08-13-21) 4.72¼ (08-07-20)
(08-13-21) 4.88¼ (08-12-20)
7.86½ (08-13-21)
7.95¾ (08-13-21)
7.95½ (08-13-21)
7.48
(10-01-21) 4.88¾ (06-26-20)
(06-26-20)
5.14
5.27
5.27
(08-13-19)
(08-13-19)
(08-13-21) 5.16¼ (05-18-20)
9.37½ (08-13-21) 5.61½ (08-13-20)
9.25¼ (08-13-21) 5.74½ (09-09-20)
9.11
8.96½ (08-16-21)
(08-20-21) 5.74½ (09-18-20)
6.06¾ (01-12-21)
7.76¾ (08-13-21) 4.86½ (08-12-20)
7.76
7.51
Prices were unchanged to higher last
week in quiet, nearby-focused trading.
Feed demand improved in the closing
week of the third quarter. Traders attributed
the uptick to stronger pull from buyers who
cleaned up contracts of cheaper feed booked
for summer and the mixer base ramping
up finished feed production and building
inventory in warehouses before winter.
Some feed mills could take only limited supplies
due to a shortage of workers.
Flour mill runtimes generally remained
Nov.-Dec.
Jan.-Mar.
Apr.-June
150 @ 160 +5 @ +5 +25 @ +25 115 @ 125 160 @ 170 165 @ 175 120 @ 130
200 @ 210 +30 @ +30 +35 @ +35 140 @ 150 185 @ 195 185 @ 195 155 @ 165
174 @ 184
170 @ 180
187 @ 197
+17 @ +17 129 @ 139 179 @ 189 147 @ 157 132 @ 142
+17 @ +17 125 @ 135 175 @ 185 143 @ 153 128 @ 138
+17 @ +17 142 @ 152 192 @ 202 160 @ 170 145 @ 155
140 @ 150 +5 @ +5 +5 @ +5 110 @ 120 145 @ 155 155 @ 165 125 @ 135
130 @ 140 +10 @ +10 +10 @ +10 95 @ 105 135 @ 145 140 @ 150 120 @ 130
140 @ 150 +5 @ +5 +5 @ +5 115 @ 125 160 @ 170 165 @ 175 145 @ 155
174 @ 189
170 @ 185
120 @ 130
-
-
-
-
-
-
134 @ 149 179 @ 194 184 @ 199 164 @ 179
130 @ 145 175 @ 190 180 @ 195 160 @ 170
100 @ 110 130 @ 140 130 @ 140 120 @ 130
lengthy. But there were scattered mills
shortening grind for routine maintenance,
such as fumigation, or in some cases,
mechanical problems with boilers. A Southwest
mill took nearly a week off for a project,
and the region had the nation's tightest
millfeed supply as a result. Prices in the interior
of Kansas were among the nation's highest
prices, and Kansas City offers were rare,
so price definition was a challenge.
Millfeed was $150 a ton in Kansas City and
$174 in Minneapolis, on a rail basis, compared
with corn at $188 a ton and sorghum at $198 a
ton, both KC. Corn gluten feed was $5 higher at
$185 a ton in KC, where dried distillers' grain
and dehydrated alfalfa were unchanged at
$215 and $300 a ton, respectively. MBN
bakingbusiness.com
previous week and down 30% from the prior
four-week average.
Pakistan and Algeria bought large volumes
of wheat last week, but European
Union and Black Sea nations were expected
to be the principal suppliers.
Russia recently raised its export tax on
wheat, encouraging ideas that nation may
impose limits on exports in coming months.
Russian wheat prices have been on the rise
for the past several weeks. MBN
Millfeed
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
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Milling & Baking News - October 5, 2021

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