Milling & Baking News - September 7, 2021 - 30

TUES | 09 07 2021
US hard red winter may be next
victim of adverse weather
BY DREW LERNER
KANSAS CITY - Spring cereals in
Canada, the United States, Kazakhstan
and a part of Russia all had a tough summer
this year. Drought in most of these
areas cut into production and helped to
make a few commodity traders rich. The
higher prices were not as welcome or well
received by food companies. The once
abundantly accessible and oversupplied
cereal is seeing a change in its abundancy,
especially the higher quality crops.
Southern Hemisphere wheat producers
are hoping to take full advantage of the
Northern Hemisphere production failings
and high prices and turn it into a big year
of profit. Australia and Argentina are
the two larger players in Southern Hemisphere
wheat production, and Australia is
poised for another significant production
year. That pleases producers down under
and will help them cash in big time after
being punished by multiple drought years
and low prices previously.
The prospects for wheat production in
Australia are looking relatively good for
this year. Recent frost and freezes in the
drier cropland of Queensland have not
knocked the wind out of Australia's sails
- at least not yet. Queensland has still not
fully recovered from the multiple drought
years of the past, and its yield may be down
a bit without more rain soon. Reproduction
in Queensland should occur in the first
half of September, and the recent frost and
freezes noted there along with dry field
conditions may reduce some unirrigated
crop yields. Queensland is not a big enough
wheat producer to pull down the production
of Australia's total crop, but the growing
season is far from over.
Worry will be rising later this season
over the potential for a wet harvest in
eastern Australia. That is the biggest
threat facing that crop, which otherwise
is expected to be quite large.
There is also much early season speculation
over Argentina wheat weather,
but even though the nation's soil moisture
30 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
bakingbusiness.com
is low today, it is not as anomalously dry
this year as it was in either of the past
two years. Argentina's wheat also was
well established in many areas during
the planting season. The exception was in
Cordoba, where dryness left some of the
crop a little more poorly established than
in other areas.
World Weather, Inc. believes wheat in
Argentina this year may perform relatively
well. Despite La Niña and much talk
about it leaving Argentina in a drought,
the nation may see some well-timed rainfall
to support production.
Back in the Northern Hemisphere there
is some growing concern over the establishment
and general health of hard red
winter wheat in the Plains this year. Amazing
that such worry would occur before
much of the crop gets into the ground, but
there is reason for the concern. World
Weather, Inc. sees the 18-year cycle, solar
cycle and La Niña all contributing to a
below-average precipitation bias that may
not impact crops as much during the planting
season as it will in the establishment
period. October is likely to be dry and very
warm. September weather is going to be a
little more mixed, but plenty of warm and
drier biased air will be around to remove
favorable moisture from the soil while
crops are establishing.
The best soil conditions today are in the
central Plains, and that region might be
wise to get planting done early because of
the drier bias expected later this season.
Wheat may not be as well established in the
central and southwestern Plains as it should
be in non-irrigated fields, and that will be
important because there will be some bouts
of cold weather this winter with restricted
snowfall around. That also will occur in
association with La Niña, the negative phase
of Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the 18-year
WEATHER update
©JOZSITOEROE - STOCK.ADOBE.COM AND WORLD WEATHER, INC.
http://www.bakingbusiness.com
Milling & Baking News - September 7, 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - September 7, 2021
