Corporate Profiles - 2020 - 10

INDUSTRY REVIEW: GRAIN-BASED FOODS

Grain-based foods
Complexion of category has changed markedly since
the coronavirus pandemic
ealing with near-term challenges while planning for the long
term is always difficult for business but has been a particularly
heavy lift for grain-based foods in 2020.
Many segments of the grain-based foods industry have endured flat to
sagging demand for years, a trend that was firmly in place when 2020
began. While there is little reason to believe these long-term trends have
been permanently arrested, the complexion of the grain-based foods
industry has changed markedly since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abruptly disrupted the US economy beginning in March. Across
the entire span of grain-based foods, sales since March have surged as
consumers stocked their pantries in the face of stay-at-home orders and
remained strong as the percentage of meals eaten at home remained far
above levels in 2019 and the start of 2020.
That long-term trends remained intact before the pandemic was affirmed in May of this year when the US Department of Agriculture announced that per capita flour consumption in 2019 slumped to 130.7
lbs. The figure was down 2.1 lbs from 2018 and was the lowest figure
since 1989. In the 22 years since per capita consumption hit a recent
high in 1997, per capita consumption slumped 16.1 lbs, or 11%.
Gluten avoidance and fad dieting have continued to fuel the decline in
per capita demand for flour, and the cumulative effect of years of shrinkage are reflected in aggregate consumption levels no longer viewed as
excessive by the nutrition community. Data in the scientific report of
the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, published earlier in 2020,
showed that about 50% of Americans consume less grains daily than
recommended in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans.
In March, the fortunes of many segments of grain-based foods changed
abruptly. Frenzied buying made it difficult for bakers and other producers
of grain-based foods to keep pace with demand.

LEADING FRESH

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

bread vendors

Grupo Bimbo
Flowers Foods Bakeries LLC
Campbell Soup Co.
Lewis Bakeries, Inc.
Aunt Millie's Bakeries, Inc.
United States Bakery
Aryzta LLC
H&S Bakery
Martin's Famous Pastry Shoppe, Inc.
Private label
Total

Dollar sales
$2,533,789,668
$2,298,059,793
$666,774,195
$205,064,819
$175,808,062
$167,376,011
$121,939,710
$121,083,207
$113,120,718
$1,724,676,003
$9,494,703,180

At the peak of business in March, sales at Flowers Foods, Inc., Thomasville, Ga., were up 70% versus the same week a year earlier, the company said. A. Ryals McMullian, chief executive officer, credited Flowers'
long experience in preparing for and responding to hurricanes and the
company's direct-store delivery capabilities for generally keeping retailers' shelves filled. The difference, he said, was that this "hurricane" struck
Flowers' entire network, not just an isolated portion of the southeastern
United States. Flowers and other bakers cut back significantly on the

LEADING
% change
from
year ago
5.6%
12.0%
7.1%
8.3%
5.1%
11.2%
4.9%
18.4%
26.2%
-1.7%
6.2%

Data for 52 weeks ended July 12, 2020
Total US - Multi-outlet with C-Store (Supermarkets, Drugstores and Mass Market Retailers, Gas/
C-Stores, Military Commissaries and Select Club & Dollar Retail Chains)
Source: Information Resources, Inc.

10 \ October 2020

©PHOTOPIXEL - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

D

grain-based foods categories

Fresh bread
Bakery snacks
Hamburger and hot dog buns
All other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
Donuts
Pastry/Danish/coffee cakes
Cakes (no snack cakes/coffee cakes)
Muffins
Bagels/bialys
English muffins
Pies (no snack pies)
Pita bread

Dollar sales
$4,791,333,099
$1,648,205,365
$1,433,791,030
$1,113,124,523
$983,532,927
$966,306,208
$686,447,085
$605,607,754
$559,744,751
$384,801,153
$133,877,118
$61,586,313

% change
from
year ago
15.4%
2.6%
21.0%
19.7%
5.5%
3.2%
-1.2%
5.4%
27.7%
22.8%
-3.7%
14.3%

Data for 24 weeks ended Aug. 9, 2020
Total US - Multi-outlet with C-Store (Supermarkets, Drugstores and Mass Market Retailers, Gas/
C-Stores, Military Commissaries and Select Club & Dollar Retail Chains)
Source: Information Resources, Inc.

Milling & Baking News * Food Business News * Baking & Snack * Meat+Poultry * Pet Food Processing

Corporate Profiles



Corporate Profiles - 2020

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