Supermarket Perimeter - September 2020 - 70

OPERATIONS

Culinary Tides has identiﬁed three trends reversing course due to COVID-19 inﬂuence

FAUX MEAT

SOBER CURIOUS

SUSTAINABILIT Y SPENDING

Proteins will be more approachable
and less extreme but there are some
outliers with links to sustainability,
history, or both. As for the trend
reversal, within the protein trend, the
interest in faux meat is one of the
trends which COVID-19 is upending.
It is clear from research that faux
plant-based meats are consumed by
meat eaters, not vegetarians, with
curiosity being their driver. As sales
numbers on these products continue
to slide, COVID-19 is pushing meat
eaters back to animal protein at an
accelerated pace, while vegetarians
are celebrating plants being plants.
Plant protein will learn to stand
on her own while maintaining her
individual personality. Dairy is
another category which has been
maligned lately, but now has a set
of conditions which may allow her
to shine. Dairy has the winning
combination of health attributes and
comfort, but she needs to stand up
for herself. A newer, more promising
direction, which supports the current
mood, is to hybridize the categories
- an alliance between animal and
vegetable protein, with vegetables
maintaining their natural integrity
and voice.

The settings for beverage establish the
tone for the experience. The settings
forecasted seem split between alcohol
and non-alcohol-based venues, which
is in line with earlier predictions
supporting the sober curious.
However, COVID-19 is reversing this
trend, and a continued rise in alcohol
consumption is anticipated. When
times are difficult, consumers drink.
Overall, alcohol consumption is
expected to rise - and the balance of
which type of alcohol is consumed
will shift between categories.
Hard seltzer is holding her ground
during COVID-19, but wine and
beer are moving forward, while
complex cocktails are losing ground.
Single spirits and simple cocktails
(think gin & tonic) should remain
steady. Boomers, Gen X, and
older Millennials will be the ﬁrst to
cause this pattern change. Younger
Millennials and Gen Z are more likely
than the other gens to hold onto their
sober curious stance.
Spirits will be focused on global
classics but will be taking a more
reserved role this year. When
consumers are feeling positive,
cocktails lead beverage. When they
are not feeling conﬁdent, cocktails
take a back seat to beer and wine.
Cocktail styles will showcase
regional and historic classics, but no
experimentation here. Regarding beer,
the same pattern of regional darlings
will emerge, with no clear leader. The
classic cocktails are a throwback to
simpler times and nostalgia. Global
ciders from the US, UK, and Spain are
anticipated, as are single varietals such
as apple, pear, berry and cherry.

For the third reversal, expect
sustainability sales to de-escalate
due to cost, not desire. There is
blurring between sustainability and
health, making them more interlinked
than they were in past years. The
usual suspects will show up and
include food waste and conscious
indulgence. Reduced consumerism,
composting, and embracing the ugly
(produce) remain despite COVID-19
because they don't present a cost
barrier. When consumers experience
ﬁnancial difficulties or uncertainty,
sustainability is one of the ﬁrst things
they will step away from, even if
temporarily. They're looking for no
cost sustainability solutions to satisfy
their drive. Trust issues decrease
spending behaviors, while fear of
uncertainty is underlying their stricter
savings behavior. Sustainability
spending will bounce back, however
its return will be linked directly to
economic health and consumer
conﬁdence.

70 - SEPTEMBER 2020

supermarketperimeter.com

KRISTINA BLOKHIN, JOAQUIN CORBALAN - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

COVID CASUALTIES

http://STOCK.ADOBE.COM http://www.supermarketperimeter.com

Supermarket Perimeter - September 2020

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