Supermarket Perimeter - February 2023 - 59

where pricing has come down in the last 12 weeks, " he said.
For example, crab volume has increased as prices dropped in recent
months, according to Roerink.
IRI expects total food inflation to be lower in 2023 than 2022 and
seafood inflation should be lower as well, DuBois added. IRI projects
overall food and beverage prices to increase around 7% to 9%, with
dollar sales up 5% to 7% and overall units 1% to 3% lower.
" However, meat and seafood inflation have been trending lower
than total Food and Beverage and IRI expects them to continue lower, "
DuBois said.
" We expect sales to continue to grow, even despite a potential
recession. Customers still want to eat food they love and want the best
quality standards, " Pettys and Paone said. " We know consumers will
continue to look to us as a leader and as one of the more affordable
places they can still buy excellent quality seafood. We strive to bring
quality and affordability to the shelf as both are pillars of our core
business model. "
Another factor working in fresh seafood's favor is that the share of
home-prepared meals increased from 78.9% in November to 81.5% in
December, according to IRI's December survey. Holiday occasions,
along with the recent increase in flu and COVID cases, could be
influencing factors in the hike, Roerink noted.
Conversely, the share of households that purchased restaurant meals
declined from 80% in November to 76% in December.
" Cutting back on restaurant meals in lieu of preparing meals at home
is another important cost-saving measure, according to the December
IRI survey, " Roerink said.
Budget-minded options
Roerink expects to see more money-saving measures in 2023 within
seafood.
" The dollar will likely follow sales specials more carefully and we may also
see more switching from fresh to frozen, " she said. " The interesting thing for
fresh is that it is often a same-day consumption occasion, especially when
bought at the fish counter. Frozen provides more flexibility and as gas
prices remains elevated, this could very well play into the patterns also. "
Traditionally during tougher economic times, consumers shift some
of their seafood purchases to meat and poultry, Roerink noted.
" I think that has a lot to do with that price perception, whether it is
reality or not. When looking for ways to save, it is not illogical for them
to think that they can save by replacing seafood with meat or poultry. "
As a result, it will be important for retailers to stress nutrition,
versatility and affordability in 2023, according to Roerink. For instance,
retailers can show the savings shoppers achieve with a per meal cost of
an entire seafood dinner recipe or demonstrate a per portion cost.While
Roerink does not expect " core " consumers to stop buying fresh seafood
or even reduce frequency, " light " consumers - those who eat seafood
only once or twice a year - may do so.
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