World Grain - March 2011 - (Page 18)

GRAINMARKETREVIEW Brazilian soybean situation (in 1,000 tonnes) Oilseeds Market watching South American soybean crop closely by Chris Lyddon High demand for vegetable oil, especially from China, is keeping the oilseeds market underpinned. The focus now is on South America’s coming soybean crop, and the market is watching predictions closely. The latest forecasts on Brazil’s crop have injected a bearish note. In its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) added 1 million tonnes to its prediction for this year’s Brazilian soybean crop, bringing it up to 68.5 million tonnes, compared with the 2010 crop of 69 million tonnes. However, the newsletter Oil World has reportedly predicted a record figure of 71 million tonnes. The USDA said it had raised its figure because “timely rains in the southern producing area have raised yield prospects.” In the WASDE report, Brazil’s rise was offset against a predicted cut of 1 million tonnes for Argentina, down to 49.5 million tonnes, a figure which compares with 2010 output of 54.5 million tonnes. “Despite widespread rains since mid-January, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development reduced yield prospects,” the USDA said. “About two weeks ago, the situation looked very critical, with soil moisture levels considerably below average in most major growing regions,” the British Home Grown Cereals Authority commented. “The window for rain to improve crop development was closing, but late rains have reportedly redeemed the situation considerably.” The USDA now puts total world oilseed production for 2010-11 at 441.78 million tonnes, up ever so slightly from the previous year’s total of 441.3 million. In Europe, prices for rapeseed have risen due to strength in the world vegetable oil market. “The sharp rise in old crop values has curtailed crushing demand as a means of retaining stocks,” David Eudall, economist at the HGCA, said in an analysis of the market. Even so, he reckoned that supportive rape oil prices meant that crush margins remained profitable across Europe. “Demand rationing is likely to continue for the remainder of the season,” he said. Stock levels in Europe are forecast to fall below 1 million tonnes. “The key aspect of stocks is that they now account for a much smaller proportion of demand,” he said. “With biodiesel production from rape oil more than doubling over the past decade, the E.U. stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to fall to 4.1%. “With growing conditions for the new 2011 harvest less than ideal in Central Europe, this year’s European rapeseed harvest could turn out below expectations. This could potentially result in a similar scenario in 2011-12 to the current one whereby high prices may again limit crushing demand to prevent unsustainable stock levels.” Rapeseed plantings across Europe are forecast to decline by about 4% to 6%. “The European market will be very responsive to weather and crop condition news throughout the spring of 2011,” he said. In the palm oil market, there has also been a more bearish tone, 18 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2003-04 Exports Processing Production * Forecast Source: Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries 2004-05 U.S. Gulf Soybean Export Bids 600 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12* U.S. Gulf/FOB ($/tonne) 500 400 300 Feb-11 Dec-10 Oct-10 Aug-10 Jun-10 Apr-10 Feb-10 Dec-09 Oct-09 Aug-09 Jun-09 Apr-09 Feb-09 Dec-08 Oct-08 Aug-08 Jun-08 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture triggered by speculation China may cut tariffs to combat inflation. The Bloomberg news agency reported hints that China could cut import tariffs on cooking oils made from palm, soybeans and canola to 5% from 9%. Palm oil has rallied 42% in the past year, the agency said. Europe’s struggling livestock industry is putting pressure on regulators for action on GM, a position backed by the feed compounders’ organization, FEFAC. “Unless E.U. authorities do urgently adopt market management measures to allow imports of cheaper feed grains and the ‘technical solution’ to avoid soya trade disruptions due to low level presence of non-EU approved GMOs, many livestock farmers, especially pig holdings, will have to close down their operations since they cannot pass on higher feed costs to the consumer in the present market context,” said FEFAC President Patrick Vanden Avenne. Chris Lyddon is World Grain’s European editor. He may be contacted at chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com. We want to hear from you — Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@sosland. com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com. March 2011 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com http://www.World-Grain.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - March 2011

World Grain - March 2011
Contents
from the editor-in-chief - Arab revolution of great importance for wheat
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Australia’s winter crop estimated to increase 19%
With China crop in trouble, wheat surges upward
Port of Novorossiysk grain volumes decline 36.5%
FEFAC welcomes E.U. decision on GMO
Cargill to build new corn processing plant
Joint venture to build new canola crush plant in Canada
CWB purchases lake vessels for grain
E.U. compound feed production increases in 2010
U.S. fl our production in 2010 gains 0.4%
Industry responds to corn amylase approval
Scoular purchases ethanol plant, shuttle facility
Income from operations, sales soar at MGPI
Grain, ethanol boost The Andersons, Inc. to record results
Bunge’s net income rises on strong agribusiness performance
GRAIN MARKET REVIEW - Oilseeds
COUNTRY FOCUS - Focus on the Philippines
Key Facts
Flooding takes toll on Australian grain industry
Single desk survives — for now
What's next for Russia?
A New Vision
Unrest in Egypt
New look for Victam International 2011
Attendance surges at IPE/IFE
Deep in the heart of Texas
Schedule at a glance
Nominations solicited for Milling Operative of the Year
IAOM Conference & Expo - 2011 exhibitor booths
IAOM PRODUCT SHOWCASE
FEED OPERATIONS - Energy savings
Proactive path to PEST MANAGEMENT
Seeking to add customer value
Buhler Technology Group has successful 2010
Stern-Wywiol Gruppe receives prestigious business awards
Perten to supply Turkish Grain Board with Inframatic analyzers
GSI Group launches new customer-centric website
Ocrim supplies Libyan mill
Cargotec to acquire terminal operator systems provider
Eurofi ns appoints new chief scientifi c offi cer
4B Braime opens new subsidiary in Australia
ADVERTISER INDEX

World Grain - March 2011

http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2021
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2021
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2021
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2021
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2021
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2021_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com