World Grain - October 2011 - (Page 10)

from the editor-in-chief Grain’s influence on global population trends I n dealing with a plethora of negative assessments of the global economic outlook, the temptation is great to embrace any positive sign. None is more welcome than evidence of market growth as measured by that most basic of all statistics, the count of consumers. Here the attention is to global numbers, in part because this year marks another milestone, the addition of 1 billion people. For the grain industry, hardly anything is more important than the consumer number. Equal weight ought to be assigned to global market measures as well as hugely important supply-demand equations. These govern the cost of everything from origination and processing equipment to grain as an essential ingredient. Thanks to studies by the Population Reference Bureau, it may be stated that global population will reach 7 billion near the end of this year. As staggering as that may be, its significance is magnified by this: “Today the world is adding the largest numbers to the population as in any time in history.” Such a statement may seem contrary to the declining annual population growth rate, to 1.2%, compared with more than 2% a few decades ago. The simple explanation is that the current growth rate, with the downward trend nearly universal, means adding 83 million persons annually, whereas the same growth in 1930 would have meant yearly gains of 30 million. The highest growth rate in history was 2.1% in the late 1960s, and if that had held, the increase would be 117 million and today’s population would be 8.6 billion. Achieving the seventh billion in 2011 took 12 years, the same as the interval between 5 billion and 6 billion. Remembering that the first billion did not occur until 1800 and that 130 years were needed to reach 2 billion in 1930 underscores the rapidity of current expansion. Looking ahead, the bureau says the record-breaking 12 years to add 1 billion will likely rule in bringing 8 billion in 2023. Without exploring the wide diversity in population changes among continents and countries, the Population Reference Bureau presents a dramatic contrast between Italy and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Italy has a population today of 61 million and Congo is 68 million. Projections for 2050 show Italy holding at about the same number and Congo expanding to 149 million. Annual births in Italy are forecast at 560,000 and deaths at 590,000, compared with 3,050,000 and 1,140,000 respectively, for Congo. The current annual global gain stems from 139,558,000 births and 56,.611,000 deaths to result in natural increase of 82,947,000. While people are the all-important force behind demand, the Italy-Congo differences should not be neglected. Indeed, the annual natural increase rate near 83 million is made up of 81 million in less developed nations and 2 million in the more developed countries. Economic status hugely influences demand for grain in all three categories – food, feed and industrial. That is why it’s important to realize that the most rapid population expansion is occurring among the poorest people. At present, 48% of the world lives in poverty, meaning incomes below U.S.$2 per day. In India, which will become the most populous country, ahead of China, by 2050, 76% live in poverty. Yet, it is expanded urban dwelling and the positive effect this exerts on incomes that spur birth rate declines. While economic advances and improved public health are hugely important influences on population trends, it is expanding urbanization and modern medicine that are specifically credited with current trends. Often overlooked is the grand role grain-based food itself has played in influencing family size. Modern processing and distribution, as well as advances like enrichment, have totally transformed the role of the family in assuring food adequacy. In many ways, the global grain and food situation has as much to do with population size as any other factor, indicating how food has become an important determinant of its own demand. Morton I. Sosland Editor-in-chief Chairman Charles Sosland Publisher/Managing Director Mark Cornwell Director of Advertising Sales Dan Flavin EDITORIAL STAFF Editor-in-Chief Editor Managing Editor, Editor European Editor Designer Morton I. Sosland Arvin Donley Meyer Sosland Chris Lyddon Ryan Alcantara PUBLISHING STAFF Vice-Chairman L. Joshua Sosland President and Publishing Director Mark Sabo Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer Melanie Hepperly Audience Development Director Don Keating Director of On-line Advertising and Promotions Carrie Fluegge Promotions Manager Taré Torres Director of e-Business Jon Hall Advertising Manager Nora Wages Advertising Materials Coordinator Debbie Maniez Digital Systems Analyst Marj Potts Circulation Manager Judith Arnone WORLD GRAIN (ISSN 0745-8991) Volume 29, issue 10, is published monthly by Sosland Publishing Co., 4800 Main Street, Suite 100, Kansas City, MO 64112 U.S. Periodicals postage paid at Kansas City, MO 64108 U.S. and additional mailing offices. Canada Post International Publications Mail (Canada Distribution) Sales Agreement Number 40612608. Send returns (Canada) to Pitney Bowes International, P.O. Box 25542, London, ON, N6C 6B2. Printed in the USA. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to WORLD GRAIN, PO Box 324, Congers, NY 10920-0324. © Sosland Publishing Co. All rights reserved. Reproduction of the whole or any part of the contents without written permission is prohibited. WORLD GRAIN assumes no responsibility for the validity of claims in items reported. Sosland Publishing Co. is a division of Sosland Companies. Inc. Editorial and advertising inquiries should be directed to our world headquarters at 4800 Main St., Suite 100, Kansas City, Missouri 64112 U.S. Tel: 1-816-756-1000, Fax: 1-816-756-0494 or E-mail Requests for reprints of articles should be sent to or call 1-816-756-1000. 10 October 2011 / World Grain /

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - October 2011

World Grain - October 2011
Grain’s influence on global population trends
News review
Focus on Turkey
In it for the long haul
Deregulation shapes shipping market in Australia
Port developments
News Roundup
Thai rice plan controversial
A growing force in corn
Is biotech blooming in Europe?
A battle for China
Marketing maneuvers
Biofuels News Review
A new imaging method for millers
U.S. soy crushers face challenges
IAOM Eurasia
Flour trade prospects improve
Ridding your facility of rodents
Intersystems expanding Omaha facility
OCRIM school educates millers from around the world
Perten Instruments acquires TexVol Instruments
Food Protection Alliance names Schmitz as director
SternMaid to participate in Food Ingredients Europe
Insta-Pro International names Latin American sales manager
Alltech realigns leadership team
Advertiser Index

World Grain - October 2011