World Grain - January 2013 - 80

FEATURE

2013

shipping outlook

I

nternational grain shippers and traders were not overly troubled by the cost of ocean transportation in 2012. Although
rates should improve during 2013, it is by no means certain
they will return back even to the higher points of 2011, itself
hardly a boom year for vessel owners and operators.
By late November 2012, the Baltic Dry Index, the leading
guide to the cost of ocean transport by bulk carrier, was averaging 926 points, some 623 points lower than a year earlier.
The same trend was apparent across the bulk vessel sectors
with the Baltic Panamax Index at 980 — close to its annual
average of 972 but down from the 1,749 averaged in 2011.
The supramax and handysize sectors proved slightly more resilient. The former’s average in late November was 917 compared to 1,377 in 2011, while the handysize index was down
to 448 points, below both its average of 523 for 2012 and the
718 average recorded in 2011.
For grain shippers this translated into major year-on-year
reductions in shipment costs on key routes for those able to
play the spot markets. On the U.S. Gulf-E.U. lane, the cost per
tonne of heavy grain fell from $26 in December 2011 to just
$19 in early December 2012. Over the same period, rates on
U.S. Gulf-Japan lane fell from $57 per tonne to $42 per tonne,
and on Brazil-E.U., from $44 per tonne to $29 per tonne.
By early December 2012, the International Grains Council Grain Freight Index had fallen below 4,000 points, from
above 5,250 points a year earlier.
However, poor weather conditions saw grain markets assume
a more important role in bulk markets than usual, albeit only
in a negative sense from a bulk vessel operator’s point of view.
Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Bimco, said the
U.S. and Russian crop performances in 2012 were especially influential.
(Above) Photo courtesy of Nickolay Khoroshkov/Shutterstock.com.
80

by Michael King

Transportation costs for grain
traders look certain to increase, but
excess capacity will limit gains for
ship owners
“U.S. wheat exports in 2012 were weak all year,” he told World
Grain in December. “Export volumes during the ‘peak season’
months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that
many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.”
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects its drought to
cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to
the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said
total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season.
“The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the U.S.
and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping
markets,” said Sand.
The current 2012-13 global crop is predicted to be a poor one in terms of seaborne
exports and this will continue to influence
freight rates on core trading routes during
2013 for vessels under panamax size.
“Lots of weather-related factors have
negatively affected wheat, coarse grains
and soybean exports globally,” said Sand.
Sand
“This has meant a lot of lost tonne-miles
January 2013 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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World Grain - January 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - January 2013

World Grain - January 2013
Table of Contents
From the Editor-in-chief - Instant noodles as single product success
Calendar of Events
News review - Nisshin to buy New Zealand flour milling business
China expects record 2012-13 corn crop
ADM sells its stake in Gruma, ends 16-year partnership
Glencore completes acquisition of Viterra
Bunge ‘extremely pleased’ by court order
AFIA’s Newman presents at feed patterns seminar
Scoular adds to grain handling capacity
ADM selects vice-president of technical services
IGC forecasts largest world wheat area since 1998-99
Vietnam’s rice exports likely to hit record
U.S., China to cooperate on food safety
GrainCorp rejects second offer from ADM
Richardson receives regulatory clearance for Glencore deal
IGC meeting reviews state of global grains
Rabobank: China will drive agricultural commodity demand
China cancels 300,000-tonne soybean purchase
Cargill launches wheat flour in India
Letter to the editor
Grain Market Review - Oilseeds
Country Focus - Focus on Japan
Feature - Can grain and oilseed markets rebuild stocks?
Feature - Specialty flour products
Feature - Millers gather in Middle East
IAOM Latin America District holds conference following ALIM
Feature - Grain take on vital global importance
Feature - GEAPS Exchange 2013
GEAPS Product Showcase
Grain Operations - Innovative conveying solutions
Feature - 2013 shipping outlook
World Grain Weather Report - Adverse weather conditions impacting wheat
Supplier News
World Grain Archive
Advertiser Index
World Grain - January 2013 - World Grain - January 2013
World Grain - January 2013 - 2
World Grain - January 2013 - 3
World Grain - January 2013 - 4
World Grain - January 2013 - Table of Contents
World Grain - January 2013 - From the Editor-in-chief - Instant noodles as single product success
World Grain - January 2013 - 7
World Grain - January 2013 - Calendar of Events
World Grain - January 2013 - 9
World Grain - January 2013 - China expects record 2012-13 corn crop
World Grain - January 2013 - 11
World Grain - January 2013 - Glencore completes acquisition of Viterra
World Grain - January 2013 - Bunge ‘extremely pleased’ by court order
World Grain - January 2013 - Scoular adds to grain handling capacity
World Grain - January 2013 - U.S., China to cooperate on food safety
World Grain - January 2013 - Richardson receives regulatory clearance for Glencore deal
World Grain - January 2013 - IGC meeting reviews state of global grains
World Grain - January 2013 - Letter to the editor
World Grain - January 2013 - 19
World Grain - January 2013 - Grain Market Review - Oilseeds
World Grain - January 2013 - 21
World Grain - January 2013 - Country Focus - Focus on Japan
World Grain - January 2013 - 23
World Grain - January 2013 - 24
World Grain - January 2013 - 25
World Grain - January 2013 - Feature - Can grain and oilseed markets rebuild stocks?
World Grain - January 2013 - 27
World Grain - January 2013 - 28
World Grain - January 2013 - 29
World Grain - January 2013 - 30
World Grain - January 2013 - 31
World Grain - January 2013 - 32
World Grain - January 2013 - 33
World Grain - January 2013 - Feature - Specialty flour products
World Grain - January 2013 - 35
World Grain - January 2013 - 36
World Grain - January 2013 - 37
World Grain - January 2013 - 38
World Grain - January 2013 - 39
World Grain - January 2013 - Feature - Millers gather in Middle East
World Grain - January 2013 - 41
World Grain - January 2013 - 42
World Grain - January 2013 - 43
World Grain - January 2013 - 44
World Grain - January 2013 - 45
World Grain - January 2013 - 46
World Grain - January 2013 - 47
World Grain - January 2013 - IAOM Latin America District holds conference following ALIM
World Grain - January 2013 - 49
World Grain - January 2013 - Feature - Grain take on vital global importance
World Grain - January 2013 - 51
World Grain - January 2013 - 52
World Grain - January 2013 - 53
World Grain - January 2013 - 54
World Grain - January 2013 - 55
World Grain - January 2013 - 56
World Grain - January 2013 - 57
World Grain - January 2013 - Feature - GEAPS Exchange 2013
World Grain - January 2013 - 59
World Grain - January 2013 - 60
World Grain - January 2013 - 61
World Grain - January 2013 - 62
World Grain - January 2013 - 63
World Grain - January 2013 - GEAPS Product Showcase
World Grain - January 2013 - 65
World Grain - January 2013 - 66
World Grain - January 2013 - 67
World Grain - January 2013 - 68
World Grain - January 2013 - 69
World Grain - January 2013 - 70
World Grain - January 2013 - 71
World Grain - January 2013 - 72
World Grain - January 2013 - 73
World Grain - January 2013 - 74
World Grain - January 2013 - 75
World Grain - January 2013 - Grain Operations - Innovative conveying solutions
World Grain - January 2013 - 77
World Grain - January 2013 - 78
World Grain - January 2013 - 79
World Grain - January 2013 - Feature - 2013 shipping outlook
World Grain - January 2013 - 81
World Grain - January 2013 - 82
World Grain - January 2013 - 83
World Grain - January 2013 - 84
World Grain - January 2013 - 85
World Grain - January 2013 - 86
World Grain - January 2013 - 87
World Grain - January 2013 - World Grain Weather Report - Adverse weather conditions impacting wheat
World Grain - January 2013 - 89
World Grain - January 2013 - 90
World Grain - January 2013 - 91
World Grain - January 2013 - Supplier News
World Grain - January 2013 - 93
World Grain - January 2013 - 94
World Grain - January 2013 - 95
World Grain - January 2013 - 96
World Grain - January 2013 - World Grain Archive
World Grain - January 2013 - Advertiser Index
World Grain - January 2013 - 99
World Grain - January 2013 - 100
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com