World Grain - February 2013 - 78

FEATURE: PROMISING FORECAST FOR E.U. AGRICULTURE

E.U. total cereals balance sheet forecast, 2012-22
(in million tonnes)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Usable production

279.3

294.5

296.9

297.7

299.5

300.7

302.0

303.6

305.5

307.5

309.0

Consumption

276.2

277.2

280.1

282.4

286.2

289.7

294.0

296.3

298.4

298.3

299.1

Imports

14.0

12.1

11.7

11.5

12.3

12.4

14.2

15.0

15.2

14.6

14.1

Exports

21.6

25.8

26.5

25.7

24.5

24.4

22.8

22.7

23.7

24.0

Note: the cereals marketing year is July/June
Source: European Commission

reaching 309 million tonnes by 2022,
mainly the result of low annual yield
growth rates (0.9% on average) and an
increase in the domestic use of cereals
in the E.U., most notably growing demand by the ethanol and biomass industry in the framework of the Renewable
Energy Directive,” the report said.
Some reallocation between crops in
the context of a stable overall cereal area
is expected, the report said, with maize
and wheat further increasing their share

(up to 17% and 42%, respectively) at
the expense of other cereals. The growing demand for rice will be satisﬁed by
increasing imports, further reducing the
E.U. self-sufﬁciency to 56%.
Similar drivers will impact the medium-term prospects for the E.U. oilseed
markets, which show a positive outlook
for producers with strong demand and
high oilseed oil prices, the Commission
said. Supply growth is driven by moderate yield growth and to a lesser extent

from a slightly expanding oilseed area.
The expected increase in domestic use
of oilseeds in the E.U. would also be
driven by additional demand for vegetable oils as biodiesel feedstock.
LAND USE TRENDS
In the case of cereal land use, a slight
decline over the last 20 years in the E.U.
has occurred. The pace of this decline was
generally lower than the pace of the yield
increase, leading to an increase in overall

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World Grain - February 2013

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