World Grain - February 2013 - 80

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imports are expected to stay below last year’s level, as those
from the Black Sea area are considerably curbed,” the report
said. “The expected decline of E.U. pork production, combined with expected high feed prices, is seen to reduce feed
demand leading to a lower total domestic demand for cereals.
Overall, the combination of a slightly lower crop production
and stagnant demand is expected to keep the cereal balance
tight, with stocks declining leading to a stock-to-use ratio of
12 percent.”
The Commission said the medium-term prospects for the
E.U. cereals markets are characterized by relatively tight
market conditions, low stocks, and prices which are above
the long-term averages. It said the E.U. will remain a net exporter of cereals, but due to domestic demand growing faster
than production, this gap will narrow.
The maize outlook is clearly dominated by prospects for
feed demand, the report said.
“This currently accounts for 80 percent of E.U. maize usage,” the Commission said. “Due to the expected increase in
the use of maize as an ethanol feedstock, it is expected that
this share will decline in the coming decade to about 72 percent by 2022. Although maize production in the E.U. is increasing faster than all other cereals, there is still a shortfall in
terms of overall demand, and the E.U. is expected to remain a
net importer throughout the baseline period.”
Overall, the markets for cereals are expected to remain tight,
the Commission said. A recovery from the current very tight
season is expected, but the stock-to-domestic usage ratios for
the major cereals in the E.U. will remain below average values of the last decade. This implies that prices are likely to
react more strongly to a shortfall in production in the E.U. or
major supplying regions in the world, such as South America
or the Black Sea region.
“The stock-to-domestic-use ratio of maize is considerably
higher than those of the other cereals due to the fact that the
reference point is the end of June and the main E.U. harvest
starts only in September,” the report noted.
Regarding oilseeds, the report said production in the E.U.
increased considerably during the last decade and a further
expansion is expected to occur during the coming decade.
Nevertheless, the E.U. remains a considerable net importer of
oilseeds, predominantly soybeans.
The share of rapeseed in production is about two-thirds, and
the share of soybeans in imports is slightly higher, about 73%.
These shares show only a slight shift during recent years and
the outlook period.
“Due to the increasing production and constant expectations
for imports, the share of rapeseed in the overall use of oilseeds
increases and reaches about 53% by the end of the outlook period,” the Commission said. “By then, the share of soybeans
would be, at 28%, slightly below the current level.”
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World Grain - February 2013

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