World Grain - April 2015 - 24

GRAINMARKET REVIEW

Maize (corn) monthly price
U.S. dollars per tonne

Coarse grains

250

Well supplied markets come
under pressure

150

200

100

by Chris Lyddon
50

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

coarse grains supply and raised its consumption forecast.
"Global coarse grain supplies for 2014-15 are projected 2.4 million tonnes lower, mostly on reduced corn beginning stocks and

Apr-14

export demand; feed barley export prices declined by $7, to $242
fob (Adelaide).
"Malting barley values were down by U.S.$6, to U.S.$279 fob
(Adelaide), as falling beer production in China was seen contributing to weaker third country buying interest," it said. "Amid sluggish
exports, prices in Argentina softened by U.S.$15, to U.S.$200 fob
(Up River)."
In its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Situation Re-

Mar-14

for feed barley," the report said. "A favorable outlook for 2015 crops
also weighed, with major buyers in Near East Asia and North Africa
seen likely to import less in the year ahead.
"Declines were particularly notable in the E.U. (France), under
pressure from competition in livestock rations from wheat and a
good 2015 production outlook. At U.S.$201 fob (Rouen), feed barley
export values were down by $15 month on month, with the decline
also partly linked to currency movements."
Quotations in the Black Sea region weakened by U.S.$9, to
U.S.$205 fob, it said.
"In Australia, a weaker local currency weighed on U.S. dollar de-

0
Feb-14

Ample coarse grains supplies and competition for feeds business
from wheat have put prices under pressure. Harvesting is under way
in the southern hemisphere, with South American production forecast lower on reduced area and South African supply affected by a
reduced crop, triggered by adverse weather, and a reduction in opening stocks estimates.
ness, export prices at the major origins were lower during February," the International Grains Council (IGC) said of maize (corn) in
its Grain Market Report. "With broadly similar declines in the U.S.,
South America and the Black Sea, the IGC maize sub-Index dropped
by 6% to its lowest level in more than four months."
"Up River basis offers in Argentina were lower on seasonal pressure and favorable crop prospects," it said. "With weak
nearby demand from some large buyers in North Africa and Asia,
exporters were also keen to uncover some buying. Export prices
were around 6% lower, at U.S.$170 fob. Due to fairly large availabilities and sluggish export demand, Black Sea prices were down
by around 7%, at $168 fob."
Barley was also down. "The IGC GOI barley sub-Index fell by a
net 5% during February, with pressure from ample global grain sup-

Source: World Bank

production for South Africa. Global coarse grain consumption for
2014-15 is raised 2.7 million tonnes, mostly on higher barley use
for China with larger imports and higher millet use for India with
larger production."
"Partly offsetting the increases in barley imports for China and
Iran is a reduction for Saudi Arabia," it said. "Barley exports are
raised for the E.U. and Australia. Corn imports are raised for Saudi
Arabia and Israel. In addition to the United States, corn exports are
raised for Argentina and Brazil, more than offsetting a reduction for
South Africa."
In its Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization noted that the season in the
Southern Hemisphere is well advanced.
"In South America, coarse grains production in 2015, mostly constituting maize, is forecast to decrease from the above-average output
and ample supplies that instigated a decrease in plantings," it said.
preliminary forecasts point to a small increase, as higher yields are
expected to offset a contraction in the area planted."
However, a sharp reduction in plantings for the second season is
forecast to cause a fall in aggregate production by 3% compared to
2014, it said. "In Argentina, an 11% decrease in plantings is forecast to
result in an 8% fall in maize production."
countries. However, preliminary indications point to a decline in the
aggregate 2015 maize production from last year's bumper output.
"In South Africa, the largest producer in the sub-region, maize
production is expected to fall sharply by 33% on account of reduced
yields. Elsewhere in the sub-region, including in the two second biggest producers, Zambia and Malawi, production is also forecast to
decrease, but remain above average," it said.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European editor.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
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World Grain - April 2015

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