World Grain - October 2015 - (Page 20)

GRAINMARKET REVIEW Rice monthly price Rice 450 Prices lower on slow demand, currency movements 390 by Chris Lyddon 360 330 Aug 2015 Jul 2015 Jun 2015 May 2015 Apr 2015 300 Mar 2015 20 420 Feb 2015 Slow demand and currency movements have pushed export quotations from the world's major rice suppliers lower. At the same time, concerns are being expressed over adverse weather in some of the most important producing regions. In a commentary on its Rice Price Update September, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a 0.7% or twopoint fall in its All Rice Price index, bringing it to a value of 209 points. ³7KHGURSUHÀHFWHGDVOLGHLQWKHORZHUDQGKLJKHUTXDOLW\,QGLFD sub-indices, while those tracking Japonica and aromatic rice quotations remained steady," it said. "In the aromatic market segment, India and Pakistan's basmati prices rebounded somewhat in August, compensating for a continuing drop in Thailand, where the fragrant 100% B quotaWLRQIHOOEHORZSHUWRQQHIRUWKH¿UVWWLPHVLQFH0D\´ Slow import demand and currency movements weighed on export quotations of the major suppliers, it said. "At $382 per tonne, the benchmark Thai 100% B white rice price was GRZQE\LQ$XJXVWUHÀHFWLQJERWKDVRIWHQLQJRIGHPDQGDQGWKH GHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHEDKWDJDLQVWWKH86GROODU´LWVDLG³0DUNHWZHDNness also impacted prices in other origins in Asia, particularly Pakistan and Vietnam, and in South America, while prices held steadier in the United States and Australia." According to the FAO All Rice Price Index, international rice prices averaged 8.7% lower over January-August 2015 compared with the corresponding period in 2014, it said. "The slide was steepest for aromatic rice prices, which were 30% cheaper year-on-year," it said. The International Grains Council (IGC) also reported lower prices. "Across much of Asia and the Americas, white and parboiled fob prices GHFOLQHGGXULQJ$XJXVWODUJHO\UHÀHFWLQJH[SRUWFRPSHWLWLRQIRUVFDUFH EXVLQHVVDQGFXUUHQF\PRYHPHQWV´LWVDLGLQLWV*UDLQ0DUNHW5HSRUWDW the end of August. "The IGC GOI rice sub-Index posted a net fall of 3% LQWKHSHULRGVLQFHWKHODVW*05 "Increasing worries about lagging monsoon rains in key rice-producing states in India offered only marginal market support, as a weakening domestic currency weighed, the key 5% broken grade dropping by $26, to $362 fob. In Thailand, news of fresh sales from government stocks and a softening of the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar pressured, while heightened worries about competition from Vietnam prompted some traders to lower prices in a bid to boost buying interest." The IGC reported recent large purchases by China. "Data from the General Administration of Customs, which exclude ODUJHYROXPHVRIXQRI¿FLDOWUDGHDORQJVRXWKHUQERUGHUVVKRZWRWDOULFH LPSRUWV SURGXFWZHLJKWEDVLV LQWKH¿UVWVHYHQPRQWKVRIDW million tonnes, an increase of 16% y/y," it said. "The country's large purchases are attributed to the wide differential between domestic and international prices." It also discussed the effects of the weather. "Global rice production U.S. dollars per tonne 5% broken milled white rice, Thailand nominal price quote Source: World Bank prospects typically hinge on monsoon rainfall to replenish water reserves," it said. "In Thailand, rainfall during the current season has generally been below average, despite a good month in the northeast in July DQGKHDY\UDLQVGXULQJ$XJXVW´LWVDLG³+RZHYHUJRYHUQPHQWRI¿FLDOV continue to warn of water shortages. ³6LJQL¿FDQWGHYLDWLRQVIURPDYHUDJHUDLQIDOOKDYHHPHUJHGLQUHFHQW months in Vietnam and Cambodia, potentially affecting key crop outcomes. In July, authorities in Vietnam's central and northern regions advised farmers to switch to drought-resistant alternatives to rice. Warnings from the government of Indonesia continued in August in relation to dry weather in Sumatra and Java, important islands for rice cultivation." In its Rice Outlook for September, the USDA's Economic Research 6HUYLFH LGHQWL¿HG DGYHUVH ZHDWKHU DV WKH PDLQ IDFWRU EHKLQG ZHDNHU yields which have caused a reduction in the global crop. It forecast world rice production for 2015-16 at 475.8 million tonnes (milled basis), a drop of 2.9 million from its forecast a month earlier and almost 1% down on the record of the previous year. ³7KLVLVWKH¿UVWGHFOLQHLQJOREDOSURGXFWLRQVLQFH´LWVDLG The U.S. Rice Producers Association has welcomed a phytosanitary protocol agreed between the United States and China. "The U.S. has not been permitted to ship to China because rice was not included in the original negotiations that resulted in the sale of millions of tonnes of soybeans and cotton and other grains," the association said. "That now changes with the new phytosanitary protocol. "A number of importers and distributors in China have been idenWL¿HGDQGLWLVOLNHO\WKDWWKHQHZO\SHUPLWWHGWUDGHZLOOJHWRIIWRD fast start. It is not clear how large the trade could become once the logistics and the commercial terms are perfected, but China could UHSUHVHQWDVLJQL¿FDQWERRVWWRWKH86ULFHPDUNHWZKLFKUHFHQWO\ has been slammed by the loss of markets and low-priced subsidized foreign competition." Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent. He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com. We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@sosland. com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com. October 2015 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com http://www.World-Grain.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - October 2015

World Grain - October 2015
Table of Contents
From the Editor-in-chief - Precision agriculture versus GMO’s
Calendar of Events
Registration opens for IPPE, Jan. 26-28, 2016
News Review - Louis Dreyfus hires new CEO, ending 17-month search
Ardent Mills finalizes deal to acquire Mondelez facility
Glencore considers selling stake in agricultural unit
Former Cargill executive to lead The Andersons
Flour milling specialist joins KSU faculty
Viterra to acquire oilseed processor
Nisshin plans major expansion of Canadian flour mill
Bunge to acquire Brazilian wheat miller
Cargill executive returns as member of Leadership Team
Woodchip company closer to exporting grain with ACCC decision
Australia plans to standardize, upgrade freight network
The Andersons completes grain facility updates
Mitsubishi to buy 20% share of Olam
Cargill to double capacity at soybean crush facility in Egypt
Grain Market Review - Rice
Country Focus - Indonesia
Feature - Ardent Mills coming into its own
Feature - More than a large number of mills
Feature - Face of Canada’s grain industry changing
The geography of demographic changes in Canadian agriculture
Feature - 'We're in dire straits'
Dr. Stephen Blank profile
Feature - Ship loading/unloading projects flourish
Port News Roundup
Feature - Australia seeks FTA's with Asia
Feature - Grain Market Roundtable
Milling Operations - Whole wheat flour milling, storage challenges
Feature - Global flour trade holding steady
IGC: Industrial use of grains forecast higher in 2015-16
Feature - Protecting the lifeblood of your operation
Technical Profile - Staying in control of mycotoxins
Supplier News
Product Showcase
World Grain Archive
Ad Index/Reader Information Form International Faxback Program

World Grain - October 2015

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