World Grain - January 2016 - 43

FEATURE: FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Trends in real agricultural commodity prices and world population
200

10
Agricultural prices

160

9
8

-1% per year

140

7

120

6

100

5

80

4

60

3

World population, billions

Agricultral price index, 1977-79=100

180

2

40
World population

20

1
0

0
2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

As world population growth has increased since 1900, the price of food adjusted for inflation has
declined.

cade, globally, due to climate change.
It said local production is particularly
important in the tropics, where crops'
biophysical thresholds are already closer to their limitations and where higher
temperatures are likely to result in diminished yields. In addition to the direct
physical effects of temperature and preFLSLWDWLRQFKDQJHVFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQÀXences the range and infestation intensity
of crop pests and pathogens.
7KHUHSRUWDOVRQRWHGWKDWWKHLQÀXence of climate change on which crops
are grown where in the world affects
the location of storage, processing and
packaging facilities as well as that of
the underlying transportation infrastructure for moving food from producer to consumers or to trade hubs.

Source: Fuglie and Wang 2012.

mate change and reduce detrimental climate change effects on
food security, but socio-economic
conditions can impede the adoption of technically feasible adaption options. The agricultural sector has a strong record of adapting
to changing conditions. There are
still opportunities to bring more
advanced methods to low-yield
agricultural regions, but water and
nutrient availability may be limiting in some areas, as is the ability
WR¿QDQFHH[SHQVLYHWHFKQRORJLHV
x 7KH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH IRRG V\VWHPZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIFOLPDWH
FKDQJH DOORZV IRU WKH LGHQWL¿FDtion of multiple food security
intervention points, which are
relevant to decision-makers at
every level. The future need for,
and cost of, adaption is lower under lower-emissions scenarios.
Trade decisions could help to
avoid large-scale price shocks and
maintain food availability in the
IDFH RI UHJLRQDO SURGXFWLRQ GLI¿culties such as drought. Improved
transportation systems help to reduce food waste and enable participation in agricultural markets.
Public and private sector investwww.World-Grain.com / World Grain / January 2016

FOOD ACCESS AND STABILITY
Food access involves prices (tradLQJ SUR[LPLW\ WR IRRG DYDLODELOLW\
retail outlets (wholesale/retailing), or
farmable lands (producing).
7KH UHSRUW VDLG WKDW H[WUHPH WHPperatures, heavy rainfall events,
drought, sea-level rise, and storm
surge can damage road, rail and shipping infrastructure. Climate's effects
upon transportation infrastructure can
hinder the movement of food from
its place of production to consumers,
FOOD AVAILABILITY AND SECURITY
altering food prices in response to
The report notes that climate change changes in the cost of transportation
LQÀXHQFHV DYDLODELOLW\ DQG VWDELO- disrupting the timing and operation
ity through each food system activity. of logistical supply systems between
&OLPDWH FDQ DOVR LQWHUDFW ZLWK H[WHU- producers and distributors.
QDOVWUHVVRUVVXFKDVFRQÀLFWDQGZLWK
It also noted that price volatility has
the natural resource base such as soils risen in recent years due to a combinato alter the stability of food supplies. tion of factors, including the widespread
Increased risk can also result from ag- RFFXUUHQFHRIH[WUHPHFOLPDWHHYHQWV
ULFXOWXUDO H[SDQVLRQ LQWR OHVV RSWLPDO
Rapid changes already under way in
lands in response to climate trends.
the food retail sector can improve or
According to the report, crop yields reduce resilience to climate change,
have increased globally by about 1.8% GHSHQGLQJRQVSHFL¿FDGDSWLYHFDSDFLper year on average since 2000, while ties. Adaptation to higher temperatures
the area of per-capita-cultivated land may be accomplished with increased
has decreased by 9% over the same UHIULJHUDWLRQIRUH[DPSOHWKRXJKWKDW
period, leading to an 8% increase in often comes with increased costs.
total per-capita cereal production durThe adaptive capacity of food access
ing that time. Yield increases appear to changes in climate is potentially very
to be diminished by up to 2.5% per de- high but varies enormously between
ments in agricultural research and
development, coupled with rapid
deployment of new techniques,
can help to ensure continued innovation in the agricultural sector.
5H¿QHG VWRUDJH DQG SDFNDJLQJ
techniques and materials could
keep foods safer for longer and allow for longer-term food storage
where refrigeration is absent and
food availability is transient.

43
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - January 2016
