FEATURE Late Spring/Summer 2016 Temperatures Precipitation CALM before the STORM? T he overly hyped greatest El Niño since 1950 did little to help world agriculture trade in 2015. Despite doom and gloom forecasts and outrageous predictions for caODPLW\GXHWR(O1LxR¶VLQÀXHQFHRQZRUOGZHDWKHUPRVWDJriculture commodity trading contracts saw nothing but lower SULFHVLQ2EYLRXVO\ZHDWKHUUHODWHGLVVXHVKDYHQRWKDG DKXJHLQÀXHQFHRQPDUNHWGHFLVLRQVRUKDYHWKH\" El Niño has not really been much different than that of the DQG HYHQWV DQG WKH LPSDFW KDV EHHQ SHUhaps a little anti-climactic after all of the alarming predictions. /LVWHQLQJWRWKHPHGLDRQHZRXOGWKLQNWKDW%UD]LO¶VDGYHUVH ZHDWKHU LQ WKH SDVW IHZ ZHHNV ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ HQRXJK WR send grain and oilseed prices higher. There are obviously RWKHU LQÀXHQFHV RQ ZRUOG WUDGH RWKHU WKDQ ZHDWKHU EXW MXVW OLVWHQLQJ WR DQG UHDGLQJ WKH FRYHUDJH RI %UD]LO¶V SURGXFWLRQ SUREOHPVLQRQHZRXOGWKLQNWKHUHZRXOGEHVRPH incentive for higher prices. 7KHWUXWKLVWKDWVR\EHDQSURGXFHUVLQ%UD]LOKDYHEHHQOREE\LQJVXFFHVVIXOO\IRUZHHNVWRJHWWKHLUSODQWLQJVHDVRQH[WHQGHG,WZDVH[WHQGHGWR-DQDQGQRZOREE\LVWVDUHZRUNLQJRQD-DQH[WHQVLRQ%UD]LOKDVVXFKDXQLTXHJURZLQJ season that it can plant two crops in its rainy and warm season RULWFDQMXVWSODQWRQHFURS7KHPRVWLQWHUHVWLQJIDFWDERXW WKHODWHVWOREE\PRYHPHQWLVWKDWVR\EHDQSURGXFHUVDUHOLNHO\ WRZLQWKHLUZD\LQWRJHWWLQJWKHSODQWLQJVHDVRQH[WHQGHGDQG in doing so they will be allowed to plant new crops and replant GDPDJHGVR\EHDQVDVWKHUDLQ\VHDVRQNLFNVLQWRKLJKJHDULQ WKHQH[WIHZZHHNV Weather patterns were already changing at the end of 'HFHPEHUDQGLQWRWKHHDUO\GD\VRI-DQXDU\DQGWKLVWUHQG will continue. The change will bring greater precipitation to 98 by Drew Lerner Weather-related issues have not significantly impacted the grain market in recent months but that may soon change. QRUWKHUQ%UD]LODQGOHVVUDLQWRVRXWKHUQ%UD]LOZKLFKLVH[DFWO\ZKDWSURGXFHUVQHHGDIWHUZHHNVRI(O1LxRLQÀXHQFHG DQRPDORXVZHDWKHU%HLQJDOORZHGWRSODQWDQGUHSODQWVR\EHDQVXQWLO-DQZLOOEROVWHUVR\EHDQSURGXFWLRQLQ EXWDWWKHH[SHQVHRIVHFRQGVHDVRQFRUQ7KHUHKDYHDOUHDG\ EHHQVRPHGHHSFXWVLQH[SHFWHGVHFRQGVHDVRQFRUQSODQWLQJ WKLV\HDUEHFDXVHRIGHOD\HGVHDVRQDOUDLQIDOOLQ%UD]LO,IWKH VR\EHDQSODQWLQJVHDVRQLVDOORZHGWRRFFXUODWHUWKLVPRQWK there may be a further decrease in corn planting intentions. 0HDQZKLOH$UJHQWLQD KDV D ODUJH FRUQ DQG VR\EHDQ FURS developing and that is not going to help matters much in stimulating a greater interest in price appreciation from a weather IXQGDPHQWDOSHUVSHFWLYH+RZHYHUNHHSDQH\HRQVRXWKHDVWHUQ$UJHQWLQDDQGVRXWKHUQ%UD]LO7KHZHDWKHULQWKHVHDUHDV ZKLFKKDVEHHQZHWGXULQJPXFKRIWKHJURZLQJVHDVRQPD\ trend a little drier as reproduction comes along. No drought LVH[SHFWHGEXWWKHGULHUELDVZLOOFDWFKWKHDWWHQWLRQRIWKH PDUNHWWUDGHLQWKHFRPLQJZHHNV 'U\LQJLQ$UJHQWLQDDQGVRXWKHUQ%UD]LOLVQRWUHDOO\JRing to be enough to fuel a turnaround in commodity weather WUDGHDQGLWPD\VWLOOEHGLI¿FXOWHYHQZKHQWDNLQJLQWRDFJanuary 2016 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.comhttp://www.World-Grain.com