World Grain - July 2019 - 36

FEATURE: NO END IN SIGHT FOR U.S.-CHINA TRADE WAR

We've already seen a shift in
seasonality with U.S. exports and
we'd expect that to continue.
William Tooth, Maritime Strategies International

*UHDW:HVWHUQ
0HWDO)UHH6ZLQJLQJ6LIWHUV

*UHDW:HVWHUQDQG
*D]HODUHMRLQLQJ
IRUFHVWRSURYLGHWKH
EURDGHVWUDQJHRI
VWDQGDUGDQGFXVWRP
IUHHVZLQJLQJVLIWHU
VROXWLRQVDYDLODEOH
7KHQHZDOOLDQFHDOORZV
XVWRRႇHU

6WUXFWXUDOVWHHOVLHYH
FRPSDUWPHQWV

)URPWR

FRPSDUWPHQWV

,QWHULRUVZLWK7

PLUURU¿QLVK
VWDLQOHVVVWHHO
866WDQGDUGDQG
(XURSHDQ6WDQGDUG
VLHYHVL]HV
&XVWRPVLIWHUDQG
VLHYHVL]HV
,QVXODWHGSDQHOV
(XURSHDQRU86
6WDQGDUG%RWWRP2XW
OHW$UUDQJHPHQWV
,QOHWVSRXWVXSSRUWV
'LVFKDUJHÀRRU
LQVSHFWLRQVSRXWV
DQGÀRRUSODWHV
)LEHUJODVVVXVSHQVLRQ
URGV
5HVSRQVLYHVHUYLFH
DQGVXSSRUWIURP
1RUWK$PHULFD

ZZZJZPIJFRP

3URGXFW3URWHFWLRQ 3URGXFWLRQ6LIWHUV6LQFH
3URGXFW3URWHFWLRQ 3URGXFWLRQ6LIWHUV6LQFH
36

weight to be delivered over the coming two years.
Sand said he feared that when orders were placed, they would be made
against long-term charter deals, a
trend that was turning some trades into
conveyor belts, taking away business
from the independent owners and operators and restricting the open capacity available to grain shippers.
"We have seen it on iron ore from
Brazil to China, we see it now on
bauxite from Guinea Bissau to China
- and we are likely to see more of it,"
he added. "It is smart from the perspective of the buyers of the commodLWLHV¿[LQJLWDOOIRUWKHQH[W\HDUV
but no good from an overall market
perspective, when deals like this are
done with brand news ships, and not
VKLSVDOUHDG\LQWKHÀHHW´
6KDUDQLGHQWL¿HGDIHZNH\IDFWRUV
WKDWZLOOEHRILQÀXHQFHIRUEXONVKLSping pricing in vessels smaller than
Capesize in the months ahead.
"The major change that we see here
is regarding a change in trade pattern,"
he said. "Australia has had bad weather. Most of Australia's grain goes to
China. In a situation where there will
be a shortage of grain shipped from
Australia to China, China will look at
other options. We believe most of the
shortage will get compensated for by
additional shipments from Argentina.
Any shift away from Australia-China
and toward Argentina-China will have
a substantial add-on to the overall ton
miles because of longer hauls."
He also predicted "coal shipments to
India and China will be high, helping
panamaxes and supramaxes primarily" in terms of rising demand pushing
up rates for owners.
Michael King is a multi-award-winning
journalist as well as a shipping and logistics
consultant. He also supplies an array of
corporate services - www.mkingassociates.
com. For more information, e-mail
mikeking121@gmail.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints
of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

July 2019 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

http://www.mkingassociates http://WWW.GWMFG.COM https://www.linkedin.com/company/great-western-mfg?trk=top_nav_home https://twitter.com/GreatWesternMfg https://www.facebook.com/greatwesternmfg/ https://www.instagram.com/greatwesternmfg/ http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - July 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2019