World Grain - July 2019 - 48

GRAIN
INVENTORY
MASTERED

FEATURE: EARLY FREEZE MAY AWAIT WATERLOGGED CROPS

60-day departure from normal precipitation in U.S. ended June 24

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duction potentials even for late planted
crops. However, the wet and milder
bias to temperatures at times may keep
crop development rates behind the
usual curve, and with many corn and
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there is a good chance that crops will be
quite immature when September rolls
around. That raises the need for an extended growing season this year. Warm
weather must last deeply into the early
autumn to get crops mature enough to
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freeze arrives.
This year's rainy weather pattern,
even though it has set records, has followed a pattern similar to that of 1965,
1983 and 2001. These are lunar (18year) cycle years that are closely linked
to 2019. All four years have had a simiODUXSSHUDLUZLQGÀRZSDWWHUQWKDWJHQerated months of wetter biased condiWLRQVVRPHÀRRGLQJDQGDIHZERXWVRI
notably cool weather. Each of the years
1965, 1983 and 2001 suggest that summer weather will continue to be active,
but more so in the higher latitudes. In
other words, the wetter biased pattern
should shift into Canada and the northernmost U.S. as we have already seen
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and freezes occurred in both 1965 and
1983 in the north-central United States,
but not in 2001. We then expanded our
study to include two other well-known
years that had delayed crop development. Those years included 1995 and
1974. Both of these latter years had early frost and freezes, and the occurrence
was quite similar to those of 1965 and
1983, favoring the area from the central
Plains to the Great Lakes region most
often.
The year 1995 was like this in which
planting was extremely late in the
United States. Even though abandonment in 1995 was nowhere near as great
as that of this year, there are comparative trends. May 1995 and May 2019
set records for rainfall and the precipitation patterns were quite similar. The
year 1974 was late with its crop development, but not because of too much
rain. Delays in crop development in
1974 resulted from a very cool growing
season. To a certain degree, both 1965
and 1974 seem to have some similar
temperature traits, although 1965 was
much wetter.
After looking at these years for a
while, World Weather, Inc. realized
that 1965, 1974, 1995, and to a lesser
degree, 1983, were all years that ocEARLY FROST POTENTIALS
curred just prior to the solar minimum
When considering early frost and freeze - similar to this year. After looking
SRWHQWLDOVZH¿UVWORRNHGDWWKHVHWKUHH deeper into this similarity, we learned
lunar cycle years and found early frost that 2001 (another of the lunar cycle
July 2019 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain - July 2019

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