World Grain - December 2019 - 16

COUNTRY FOCUS

FOCUS ON

TURKEY
World's top flour exporter dealing
with currency issues
by Chris Lyddon

Turkey is a major force in international trade in processed products, well placed at the intersection of Europe and Asia to supply
WKHELJPDUNHWVWRLWVHDVWZLWKÀRXUDQGLPSRUWJUDLQWRVXSSO\
its mills. Proximity to the Black Sea, giving it access to low-cost
milling quality wheat, has helped the country develop a pivotal
role in the region's market. A sharp fall in the Turkish lira has
created problems for the sector, making inputs more expensive.
According to the International Grains Council's (IGC) October
report, Turkey's total grains production in 2019-20 will be 34.1
million tonnes, a number unchanged from its September forecast
and up from 33.5 million tonnes in 2018-19.
Wheat production will be 19.2 million tonnes, another unrevised estimate, down from 20 million tonnes the year before. The
country is set to produce 6.2 million tonnes of maize, also unrevised from the month before, and compared with 5.7 million
tonnes in 2018-19.
The IGC does not list Turkey under rice producers, but according to a USDA attaché report dated Oct. 15, the country will
produce 910,000 tonnes of paddy rice on around
100,000 hectares in 2019-20.
According to the IGC, Turkey's barley
production in 2019-20 will be 8 million tonnes, also unrevised, compared with 7 million tonnes the
previous year.
The IGC forecast Turkey's
total grains imports at 10.8
million tonnes in 2019-20,
up from 10 million tonnes
predicted a month earlier
but down from 11.1 million tonnes the year before.
Turkey's grain exports are
forecast at 5.2 million tonnes,
UHYLVHG XS IURP DQ HDUOLHU ¿Jure of 5 million and up from 4.8
million tonnes the previous year.
Its imports of wheat are forecast at
16

KEY FACTS
Capital: Ankara
Population: 81,257,239 (July 2018 est.)
Religions: Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), other 0.2%
(mostly Christians and Jews).
Location: Southeastern Europe and Southwestern Asia
(that portion of Turkey west of the Bosporus is geographically part of Europe), bordering the Black Sea, between
Bulgaria and Georgia, and bordering the Aegean Sea and
the Mediterranean Sea, between Greece and Syria.
Government: Presidential republic. Chief of state and
head of government: President Recep Erdogan (since
Aug. 28, 2014).
Economy: Turkey's largely free-market economy is driven
by its industry and, increasingly, service sectors, although
its traditional agriculture sector still accounts for about
25% of employment. The automotive, petrochemical,
and electronics industries have risen in importance and
surpassed the traditional textiles and clothing sectors
within Turkey's export mix. However, the recent period of
political stability and economic dynamism has given way
to domestic uncertainty and security concerns, which are
generating financial market volatility and weighing on
Turkey's economic outlook. Current government policies
emphasize populist spending measures and credit breaks,
while implementation of structural economic reforms has
slowed. The government is playing a more active role in
some strategic sectors and has used economic institutions and regulators to target political opponents, undermining private sector confidence in the judicial system.
Between July 2016 and March 2017, three credit ratings
agencies downgraded Turkey's sovereign credit ratings,
citing concerns about the rule of law and the pace of
economic reforms. Turkey remains highly dependent on
imported oil and gas but is pursuing energy relationships
with a broader set of international partners. After Turkey
experienced a severe financial crisis in 2001, Ankara adopted financial and fiscal reforms as part of an IMF program. The reforms strengthened the country's economic
fundamentals and ushered in an era of strong growth,
averaging more than 6% annually until 2008. Global
economic conditions and tighter fiscal policy caused GDP
to contract in 2009, but Turkey's well-regulated financial
markets and banking system helped the country weather
the global financial crisis, and GDP growth rebounded to
around 9% in 2010 and 2011. The growth of Turkish GDP
since 2016 has revealed the persistent underlying imbalances in the Turkish economy. In particular, Turkey's large
current account deficit means it must rely on external investment inflows to finance growth, leaving the economy
vulnerable to destabilizing shifts in investor confidence.
Other troublesome trends include rising unemployment
and inflation, which increased in 2017, given the Turkish
lira's continuing depreciation against the dollar.
GDP per capita: $27,000 (2017 est.); inflation: 11.1%
(2017 est.); unemployment: 10.9% (2017 est.).
Currency: Turkish liras (TRY): 5.7 liras equal 1 U.S. dollar
(Nov. 18, 2019).
Exports: $166.2 billion (2017 est.): apparel, foodstuffs,
textiles, metal manufactures, transport equipment.
Imports: $225.1 billion (2017 est.): machinery, chemicals, semi-finished goods, fuels, transport equipment.
Agriculture: 6.8% (2017 est.) of GDP and 18.4% of
the labor force.
Internet: Code: .tr; 46,838,412 users.
Source: CIA World Factbook

December 2019 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - December 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - December 2019