World Grain - March 2020 - 81

World Weather Inc. is already predicting an
end to the excessive rain cycle that has
plagued U.S. production in the past year.
CURRENT SOLAR MINIMUM
With that in mind and knowing that 2020 likely will be
at or near the solar minimum, weather could become
a greater factor in future global crop production. The
world has been largely doing very well with crop production in recent years. There was a period in 2007-10
when weather around the world became a bit extreme
and commodity prices soared. That, too, occurred as the
solar cycle bottomed out and we began seeing increased
solar activity once again. The world will be in that mode
once again over the next few years. World Weather, Inc.
already is predicting an end to the excessive rain cycle
that has plagued U.S. production in the past year. The
wet bias is expected to evolve into a multi-year period of
less-than-usual rain. It would not be surprising to see a
string of drier-than-usual years similar to the 1980s and
somewhat like those of the 1930s and 1950s, but that is
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Often between solar minimums and solar maximums
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to remove moisture from the air in the middle latitudes
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times when droughts have occurred in both areas at the
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world grain supply lower. This meteorologist is not going
to put down that idea as possible, but we will take it one
growing season at a time.
In the meantime, the following snippets will keep you
updated on world weather today and expectations for the
coming year.
x Australia's worst drought since the Great
Federation Drought of the late 1800s and early
1900s has eased this summer in Queensland, where
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years of dryness. Other areas in Australia have seen
some showers and thunderstorms but not nearly
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rain to eastern Australia. The outlook for southern
Australia is for more rain this fall and planting for
wheat, barley and canola should improve.
x Drought is taking wheat production down in
Morocco and northwestern Algeria and the outlook
is not looking favorable for big improvements.
x Spain and Portugal dried out in February but had
www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / March 2020

not become too dry - at least not yet. March will
be a little wetter month, but forecasters are not convinced rainfall will get back to normal in March,
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Other areas in Europe and the Commonwealth of
Independent States are plenty moist except in parts
of the lower Danube River Basin, southwestern
Ukraine and especially Kazakhstan where dryness is
still lingering from last summer and autumn. There
is potential for improvement in soil and crop conditions in these lingering dry areas during March, but
no soaking will occur.
China is poised for a better-than-usual start to spring
crop development this year because of abundant
precipitation during the winter.
India will have huge winter crops this year because of wetter-than-usual conditions in October,
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Argentina experienced huge improvements in
weather this summer, but has entered a dry pattern
that will continue into March and could stress late
double-cropped soybeans, peanuts, sorghum and
late corn yields slightly.
Brazil is still anticipating a huge soybean crop
this summer, but second-season corn output will
be down due to late planting and a normal end to
the monsoon.
U.S. weather will be too wet in the lower eastern
Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin this
spring for normal planting. The northwestern Corn
Belt will have a drier bias this spring with late season frost and freezes. Similar conditions will occur
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start to spring. Dryness in the western and northern
Plains this spring will expand across the Midwest
this summer and some warmer than usual temperatures will evolve. This change will stress summer
crops and leave soil moisture in decline.

Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World
Weather, Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.
rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to
present, past and future weather conditions included in this report
constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report
and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - March 2020

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