World Grain - April 2020 - 32

FEATURE: COVID-19 IMPACTS AGRICULTURE FROM FARM TO FORK

and soybeans from the beginning of the year, Irwin
said. In comparison, the S&P is down 30% from an alltime high in January and the US crude oil market is
down 65%, Irwin said.
6WLOOWKHGURSLQFRUQDQGVR\EHDQSULFHVLVDVLJQL¿cant hit for producers' bottom line. For instance, a drop
in corn prices of about 50 cents is a loss of $40 to $50
per acre in expected revenue.
"We were already looking at a poor income outlook
going into 2020," Irwin said. "This means we have sigQL¿FDQWUHGLQNLQH[SHFWDWLRQV´
In the short term, the agriculture markets are most
impacted in ethanol. With plummeting gas prices amid
a usage drop, the question is how many bushels of corn
won't be going into ethanol production? Depending
on how long shelter-in-place and quarantine measures
last, Irwin said there could be a 25% to 50% drop in
ethanol production.
"We're looking at some drastic cutbacks in the short
run," he said. "If we lose 50% of ethanol for a month,
that might be 200 million bushels of corn across the
country."
POET, a US ethanol producer, said on March 23 that

32

it had suspended corn buying at seven of its 27 biofuel plants. When running at full capacity, the company
purchases 5% of the nation's corn and produces 2 billion gallons of ethanol.
The Andersons, Maumee, Ohio, US, also said it was
halting production at its ELEMENT ethanol facility
in Colwich, Kansas, US, for an extended maintenance
and repair period. It also plans to take spring maintenance shutdowns at four facilities owned by its joint
venture with Marathon Petroleum Corp.
The company expects to produce ethanol and its coproducts at approximately 50% of capacity in April,
with a return to more normal production when demand
improves.
Looking ahead to planting of the US 2020 crop,
COVID-19 could impact the rate of planting and what
farmers decide to plant. There could be some marginal
movement toward soy, Irwin said, because it has a low
intensity of inputs, which would be ideal if there were
issues in getting things such as fertilizers applied.
"All of the inputs are in place in the US to plant our
crops," Irwin said. "It's a question of the logistics. Can
all the inputs be delivered and applied by the input sup-

April 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com



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World Grain - April 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - April 2020

World Grain - April 2020 - 1
World Grain - April 2020 - 1
World Grain - April 2020 - 2
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