World Grain - July 2020 - 30

FEATURE: ANALYSTS SEE V-SHAPED ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN 2021

We have faced major
problems in terms of
logistics and distribution
of products to
consumers. But one way
or another, they have
found a solution.
Abdolreza Abbassian,
senior economist for the FAO

IGC welcomes Serbia as its
newest member
The International Grains Council during its annual
conference, held virtually this year due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, officially welcomed
Serbia as a member and acknowledged the UK's application letter to join the IGC from Jan. 1, 2021, in
accordance with the agreement on the withdrawal of
the United Kingdom from the European Union, also
known as Brexit.
The IGC met via video conference due to COVID-19
travel restrictions and current UK government restrictions on social distancing.
The secretariat also updated the Council on its ongoing projects, which include:
x Updating of the five-year supply and demand
forecasts for the main commodities, particularly
demand for feed, food and industrial use;
x Publishing a balance sheet for pulses for main
exporters;
x Implementing Market Dashboards for the four
main commodities (wheat, maize, soybeans
and rice) to show market developments (prices,
margins, trade).
x Developing a methodology for building supply
and demand balances for maize-based ethanol,
starting with the major producers;
x Developing potential new partnerships with
organizations from Eurasia and Sub-Saharan
Africa.
Also during the conference, IGC members agreed
to sign a memo of agreement between the IGC and
MED-AMIN, which would include sharing information on harvests, pulses and the cost and freight price
monitoring system for the Mediterranean region.

30

thinking and think more about the long-term impacts
RIJOREDOL]DWLRQWKHEHQH¿WVRIWKHZRUOGEHLQJPRUH
open and predictable due to long lead times for investment and production and the predictability needed for
everyone across the supply chain."
There had been concern that Russia, Ukraine and
.D]DNKVWDQ WKUHH RI WKH ZRUOG¶V ELJJHVW ZKHDW H[SRUWHUV ZRXOG WKUHDWHQ WKLV SUHGLFWDELOLW\ E\ LPSRVing long-term trade quotas to ensure their domestic
ZKHDW VXSSO\ %XW WKDWWKUHDWDSSHDUV WR KDYH SDVVHG
Abbassian said.
"Most of those restrictions have been lifted and our
H[SHFWDWLRQLVWKDWWKHUHLVQRQHHGRUUHDVRQWRH[SHFW
them to reintroduce quotas in 2020-21," he said.
The most disruptive event regarding trade the last
WZR \HDUV KDV EHHQ WKH GLVSXWH EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG
6WDWHV DQG &KLQD $OWKRXJK WKH WZR HFRQRPLF VXSHUSRZHUV VLJQHG D SKDVH RQH DJUHHPHQW LQ -DQXDU\
ZKLFKLQFOXGHGDSOHGJHE\&KLQDWRSXUFKDVHQHDUO\
$40 billion in agricultural products in 2020, diplomatic
tensions concerning the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and Hong Kong protests pushing for democratic
UHIRUPVKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRORZHUWKDQH[SHFWHGSXUFKDVHVRIZKHDWDQGVR\EHDQV
5REHUW -RKDQVVRQ FKLHI HFRQRPLVW ZLWK WKH 86
Department of Agriculture, said agricultural purchases
E\&KLQDDUHDKHDGRIODVW\HDU¶VGLVPDOSDFHEXWDUH
ODJJLQJEHKLQGWKH¿YH\HDUDYHUDJHIRULWHPVVXFKDV
VR\EHDQVZKHDWDQGPHDW+HDQWLFLSDWHVDGUDPDWLFLQcrease in soybean sales to China in the coming months.
"The China agreement is over a calendar-year peULRG VR ZH H[SHFW WR VHH D QXPEHU RI SXUFKDVHV RFFXUULQJLQWKHIRXUWKTXDUWHURI´-RKDQQVRQVDLG
-RKDQVVRQ VSRNH DERXW VKRUW DQG ORQJWHUP WUHQGV
in the grain trade, including the impacts of COVID-19.
"COVID-19 has caused supply chain disruptions that
KDYHOHGWRKLJKHUUHWDLOSULFHVIRUFRQVXPHUVDQGORZHU
farmgate prices for farmers, and that is going to continue until the COVID-19 issue is resolved," he said.
The pandemic also has increased poverty and
FKDQJHGGLHWDU\SDWWHUQV-RKDQVVRQQRWHG
³3HRSOH KDYH EHHQ PRYLQJ DZD\ IURP FRQVXPing meat and dairy and vegetable oils for more staple
crops," he said.
+RZHYHUWKH\HDUIRUHFDVWLVPXFKPRUHRSWLPLVWLF -RKDQVVRQ VDLG H[SODLQLQJ WKDW HFRQRPLF JURZWK
LV VWLOO H[SHFWHG WR RXWSDFH SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK GXULQJ
WKLV GHFDGH GULYLQJ PRUH SHRSOH ZRUOGZLGH LQWR WKH
PLGGOHFODVV'XULQJWKHQH[W\HDUVVR\EHDQWUDGH
LVH[SHFWHGWRULVHE\DQGZKHDWWUDGHLVSURMHFWHG
WRLQFUHDVHE\KHVDLG
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

July 2020 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - July 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2020
