World Grain - April 2021 - 60

IGC:

FIVE-YEAR TREND
IS PROMISING
Grains and oilseeds output should keep pace with
demand, but stock-to-use ratio may tighten
by Arnaud Petit

60	

and maize. The overall share of world
wheat trade filled by the major exporters is maintained at around 93% over
the five years, but with continued shifts
between the origins. Expanding milling wheat imports account for much of
the growth in wheat trade.
While annual increases in maize trade
are expected to be slower than in recent
years, rising feed needs will continue
to drive growth in maize shipments,
predominantly in developing countries.
With limited production gains envisaged elsewhere, the share of world trade
served by the four main maize exporters
is forecast to edge slightly higher, averaging 89% during the next five years.
Outlook for soybeans
For soybeans, assuming area gains and
improvements in productivity, global
production is predicted to also hit successive peaks during the medium term
but with growth likely to slow after
an initially solid increase in 2021-22.
The markets in Asia and the Americas
will continue to shape the pattern of
soymeal demand during the next five
years, with food and industrial (biodiesel) sectors also set to contribute
to growth in soy oil usage. A modest
uptrend in world inventories is anticipated, tied to gains in major exporters.
World soybeans trade is set to grow
progressively, albeit at a slower pace
than in the past, with China's share of
the world total staying at about 60%.
Other Asian buyers are set to secure a

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T

he most recent five-year projection on supply and demand for
the major grains published by the
International Grains Council (https://
www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfoforecasts.aspx) explain why there should
be no complacency about productivity
gain and trade facilitation in order to
sustain a global balance sheet as well as
trade needs for importing countries.
The following projections are possible supply-and-demand scenarios for
the next five-year period through 202526, taking into consideration a number
of broad assumptions, historical trends
and expert analyses of demand trends
in the post-COVID-19 era.
If growth in average yields matches recent trends, and assuming normal weather, global grain (wheat and
coarse grains) production is projected
at successive records during the next
five years. This will be sufficient to
keep pace with projected demand
growth, but will allow little rebuilding
of stocks, with the ratio of total grains
stocks-to-use tightening a little.
While the rate of stock depletion for
maize is projected to slow compared
with the recent seasons, the world
maize supply and demand outlook remains relatively tight. In comparison,
world balance sheets for other grains
remain relatively comfortable with
only minor changes over the baseline.
International grain trade is seen expanding by an average rate of 2% annually, led by higher shipments of wheat

April 2021 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://https:// http://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo
World Grain - April 2021

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