World Grain - August 2022 - 30
REGIONAL REVIEW: AUSTRALIA
on front lines of climate change
Warmer temperatures, less rainfall challenge Australian farmers
by Chris Lyddon
P
erhaps more than anywhere on earth, Australia
is having to face up to the realities of climate
change. Volatile weather patterns always have
been a familiar challenge, but now the country's grain
and oilseeds producers are dealing with, on average,
more difficult growing conditions and reduced incomes.
They're coping as changes to technology and
management have helped to limit the damage. Even so,
every part of the agrifood supply chain is expected to
be affected.
In a report, " Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
on Australian Farms, " published on July 29, 2021, Neal
Hughes and Peter Gooday of the Australian Bureau of
Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
(ABARES) explained that " in recent decades, Australia
has seen a shift towards higher temperatures and lower
winter rainfall, which has had significant effects on
many farmers. "
They also noted that " there remains much uncertainty
over the long-run effects of climate change on farm
businesses. Australia's climate has warmed on average
by 1.4°C since 1910, with most of this occurring
since 1950, " the authors said. " There has also been a
decline in winter season (April to October) rainfall in
southwestern Australia (20% since 1970) and southeastern
Australia. "
30
Citing ABARES' latest
modeling, Hughes and
Gooday said " changes in seasonal conditions over the
period 2001 to 2020 (relative to 1950 to 2000) have
reduced annual average farm profits by 23%, or around
A$29,200 (US$20,100) per farm. "
" These impacts have been most pronounced in
southwestern and southeastern Australia, with northern
Australia and the coastal higher rainfall zones
tending to be less affected, " Hughes and Gooday said.
" Conditions during the post-2000 period have also contributed
to increased risk in terms of more variable cash
income and profits. "
From 2000 to 2020, the risk of very low farm returns
(due to climate variability) essentially doubled (relative
to the period 1950 to 2000), increasing from a one in
10 frequency to more than one in five, the report said.
Looking forward to 2050, using a series of models,
Hughes and Gooday forecast that cropping farms in
western Australia are more heavily impacted than other
regions under most climate scenarios, due largely to the
more substantial projected declines in winter rainfall
and the resulting effects on crop yield.
" For these farms, declines in profit under the 2050
projection scenarios are ... larger than those observed
over the recent period, " they said. " The largest impacts
are estimated for the northern edge of the Western
August 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
©Scott Donkin - stock.adobe.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - August 2022
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - August 2022
World Grain - August 2022 - Intro
World Grain - August 2022 - 1
World Grain - August 2022 - 2
World Grain - August 2022 - 3
World Grain - August 2022 - 4
World Grain - August 2022 - 5
World Grain - August 2022 - 6
World Grain - August 2022 - 7
World Grain - August 2022 - 8
World Grain - August 2022 - 9
World Grain - August 2022 - 10
World Grain - August 2022 - 11
World Grain - August 2022 - 12
World Grain - August 2022 - 13
World Grain - August 2022 - 14
World Grain - August 2022 - 15
World Grain - August 2022 - 16
World Grain - August 2022 - 17
World Grain - August 2022 - 18
World Grain - August 2022 - 19
World Grain - August 2022 - 20
World Grain - August 2022 - 21
World Grain - August 2022 - 22
World Grain - August 2022 - 23
World Grain - August 2022 - 24
World Grain - August 2022 - 25
World Grain - August 2022 - 26
World Grain - August 2022 - 27
World Grain - August 2022 - 28
World Grain - August 2022 - 29
World Grain - August 2022 - 30
World Grain - August 2022 - 31
World Grain - August 2022 - 32
World Grain - August 2022 - 33
World Grain - August 2022 - 34
World Grain - August 2022 - 35
World Grain - August 2022 - 36
World Grain - August 2022 - 37
World Grain - August 2022 - 38
World Grain - August 2022 - 39
World Grain - August 2022 - 40
World Grain - August 2022 - 41
World Grain - August 2022 - 42
World Grain - August 2022 - 43
World Grain - August 2022 - 44
World Grain - August 2022 - 45
World Grain - August 2022 - 46
World Grain - August 2022 - 47
World Grain - August 2022 - 48
World Grain - August 2022 - 49
World Grain - August 2022 - 50
World Grain - August 2022 - 51
World Grain - August 2022 - 52
World Grain - August 2022 - 53
World Grain - August 2022 - 54
World Grain - August 2022 - 55
World Grain - August 2022 - 56
World Grain - August 2022 - 57
World Grain - August 2022 - 58
World Grain - August 2022 - 59
World Grain - August 2022 - 60
World Grain - August 2022 - 61
World Grain - August 2022 - 62
World Grain - August 2022 - 63
World Grain - August 2022 - 64
World Grain - August 2022 - 65
World Grain - August 2022 - 66
World Grain - August 2022 - 67
World Grain - August 2022 - 68
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