World Grain - February 2023 - 56

GLOBAL
FLOUR
TRADE
FORECAST
TO FALL
IGC sees declining imports in Africa, South America in 2022-23
" The latest available trade data indicate that 2022by
Arvin Donley
W
ith significantly lower import totals projected
to occur in Africa and South America, the
International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts
global wheat flour trade in marketing year 2022-23 to
match the recent low of 13.8 million tonnes (wheat
equivalent) recorded in 2020-21 during the height of
the COVID-19 pandemic.
If realized, it would be 300,000 tonnes lower than the
previous year and 200,000 below the IGC's estimate in
October.
The last time a lower global flour trade total was
recorded was 2013-14, when 13.2 million tonnes
were traded.
The IGC report, released on Jan. 12, explained the
situation in sub-Saharan Africa.
" Amid difficult economic conditions and with elevated
prices for wheat-based products seen hampering
consumer demand, updated trade statistics showed
slower-than-anticipated deliveries to (sub-Saharan
Africa) through October-November last year, with
downward adjustments incorporated for Angola, Benin
and Ghana. "
At 1.8 million tonnes, projected aggregate deliveries
to the region would be the lowest in at least 12 years,
the IGC said.
In South America, the region's largest flour supplier,
Argentina, has been plagued by severe drought
that has damaged the wheat crop and affected flour exports.
The IGC forecasts Argentina exports in 202223
to decline to 400,000 tonnes, down from 741,000
last year.
56
23 imports by Bolivia and Brazil may fall short of
last year's levels, even though Brazil has been complementing
Argentine supplies with purchases from
other neighboring countries - namely Paraguay and
Uruguay - similar to previous years, " the IGC said.
" Incorporating the latest revisions, deliveries to Bolivia
and Brazil are pegged at their lowest in eight and nine
years, respectively. "
Iraq is forecast to be the largest flour importer in
2022-23 at 2.6 million tonnes, up from 2.1 million a
year ago. However, the IGC noted that the volume is
" likely to fall short of historical highs, given the government's
reported efforts to facilitate local milling
operations. "
Top exporters
Afghanistan is expected to be the second largest flour
importer this year, with 1.8 million tonnes, up from 1.7
million in 2021-22.
Turkey is once again projected to be the world's largest
flour exporter with this year's total pegged at 4.9
million tonnes, up slightly from the October forecast
and up more than 500,000 tonnes from last year.
Second-ranked exporter Kazakhstan is forecast to
ship 2.4 million tonnes in 2022-23, unchanged from
the October estimate and up 90,000 tonnes from the
previous year.
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February 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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World Grain - February 2023

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