World Grain - January 2023 - 40

India
I
by Gordon Feller
ndia is among the countries most vulnerable to climate
change. The impacts of higher temperatures, variable
precipitation, and extreme weather events already have
begun to diminish India's overall economic performance,
which in turn effects the lives and livelihoods of millions
of poor people. India is highly dependent on agriculture,
and it has one of the highest densities of economic activity
in the world. Very large numbers of India's poor rely on
the country's natural resource base for their livelihoods,
with a high dependence on rainfall.
The growing pressure on India's water, air, soil and
forests is now recognized as the most intense anywhere
in the world. One of the significant ways that climate
change impacts is through water resources. While water
sustains life, it all too often wreaks havoc through
devastating floods and droughts. A changing climate
only aggravates these shocks.
India is one of the fastest growing economies in the
world, ranked among the top 10 highest GDP countries,
and is the world's second most populous country.
During the past two decades, India's GDP grew at an
average of 7% annually. During 2005-10, poverty declined
on average by 1.5 percentage points per year -
and improvements in key development indicators have
been remarkable. However, following years of impressive
economic growth and poverty alleviation, India is
now at a critical juncture on its path toward becoming
an economic powerhouse.
Climate change is actively impeding India's development,
in the broader economy and in agriculture. As
a result, the government and its partners (such as the
Asian Development Bank and World Bank) are pushing
for an increase in investment in adaptation mea40
sures
to reduce vulnerability will be essential to maintaining
economic growth.
India's rapid growth has increased its prominence on
the global stage and drawn attention to its climate mitigation
and adaptation efforts. The country has shown
leadership in global efforts to limit climate change and
is among the early countries to have ratified the Paris
Agreement on Climate Change (in October 2016).
Analyses of the country's historic climate data support
the extent of the change taking place: an increase
in mean annual temperature (0.56°C between 1901
and 2007), as well as a decrease in seasonal mean
rainfall with more frequent extreme rainfall events.
Temperatures are projected to increase further and at a
faster rate than before (by 1.7° to 2.0°C by the 2030s),
coupled with an overall increase in monsoon rainfall
(with an increase in geographic variability) and extreme
precipitation events (with an increase in rainfall intensity).
India shows an increasing trend in its per capita
emission of GHGs, though current per capita levels are
still among the lowest in the world (2.44 tCO2
equivalent
per capita in 2012, against global average of 5.5
tCO2
equivalent). In absolute terms, India remains one
of the largest GHG emitters, with its agriculture sector
the second largest contributor at around 18% of the
country's total GHG emissions.
Business and government both understand that agriculture
sector growth is essential in achieving India's
development goals. The sector currently accounts for
14% of national GDP and is a source of livelihood
for more than half of the population. More than twothirds
of the country's poor live in rural areas, and their
chance of getting out of poverty directly depends on
January 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
in the crosshairs of climate change
Extreme weather threatens the world's second largest producer of wheat, rice
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World Grain - January 2023

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