World Grain - January 2023 - 67

Mar - May
1969
18-year cycle rain anomalies
1987
2005
1951
Below
-12 "
-8 "
-4 "
-2 "
-1 "
0 "
1 "
2 "
4 "
8 "
Above
12 "
in the central US Plains and some neighboring areas of
the western Corn and Soybean Belt.
As amazing as this repeating weather cycle seems
to be, it is imperative to remember that this repeating
pattern is mostly an upper air wind flow pattern and not
necessarily a proven precipitation predictor. Normally,
such patterns of highly correlated precipitation anomalies
do not exist, which implies the data shown here
could be coincidental and the pattern may be begging
for a change or deviation from the trend in 2023.
With that said, it is important to also note that a pattern
similar to this has been suggested in departing
multi-year La Niña events that occur in this current
22-year solar with negatively phased Pacific Decadal
Oscillation underway. These years also have demonstrated
a drier bias in the spring following the greatest
decline in La Niña - which is coming later this month
and in February.
The similarity in the two weather patterns raises the
importance of monitoring winter precipitation in the
US Plains and Midwest just in case the patterns noted
above are poised to repeat once again in 2023. There
are two possible scenarios for spring weather this year,
but the one dominating feature that appears in all scenarios
is timely rainfall that returns to the central Plains
and a part of the western Corn Belt during the late winter
and spring.
Two scenarios in the Midwest
If we continue to see precipitation frequency high or
increasing throughout the remainder of winter, a drierbiased
spring would be beneficial for the planting season
because the drier bias would occur in time to firm
up the soil and promote aggressive planting progress
World-Grain.com / World Grain / January 2023
after the wetter-biased winter. This scenario also would
result in quick plant emergence and establishment due
to less frequent and less significant rainfall supporting
aggressive field progress while subsoil moisture is sufficient
for germination and early growth.
However, if winter precipitation continues lighter
than usual and soil moisture becomes more limited during
late winter and early spring, the drier bias advertised
here for March through May could raise some concern
over planting, emergence and establishment moisture.
Dryness would then present a possible threat to spring
field progress and early season crop development.
The official forecast by World Weather, Inc. continues
to promote enough precipitation this winter to help
fieldwork advance well during the spring and, if precipitation
is lighter than usual during the spring planting,
progress should advance swiftly.
As temperatures heat up, though, it will become more
imperative that rainfall increases or at least continues
routinely in the spring to support normal crop advancement.
It is also important to remember that below-normal
precipitation does not mean drought, and in recent
years the spring seasons have been trending wetter,
making a drier spring scenario all the more important
for advancing fieldwork early.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past
and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the
corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to
change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
67
Source: NOAA
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2023

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