World Grain - March 2021 - 27

Source: Index Mundi, photo: ©Olha Afanasieva - stock.adobe.com

World-Grain.com / World Grain / March 2021

China, Brazil soybean trends
(in 1,000 tonnes)
199
90
199
91
199
92
199
93
199
94
199
95
199
96
199
97
199
98
199
99
200
00
200
01
200
02
200
03
200
04
200
05
200
06
200
07
200
08
200
09
201
10
201
11
201
12
201
13
201
14
201
15
201
16
201
17
201
18
201
19
202
20

1
136
150
125
155
795
2,274
2,940
3,850
10,100
13,425
10,385
21,417
16,933
25,802
28,317
28,726
37,816
41,098
50,338
52,339
59,231
59,865
70,364
78,350
83,230
93,495
94,095
82,540
98,533
100,000

BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS

tries - the United States, Canada,
Argentina and Australia. But only
18% of global wheat production entered international trade.
Nations started pushing for inFUHDVHGWDUL൵SURWHFWLRQDQGZRUOG
trade plunged, according to the
20th Century Transformation of US
Agriculture and Farm Policy report
E\WKH86'$¶V(FRQRPLF5HVHDUFK
Service.
In the United States, agricultural exports fell by more than
20% from the previous decade.
$JULFXOWXUDO H[SRUWV UHPDLQHG ÀDW
until the 1960s and began to rise
dramatically in the 1970s, fueled by
adjustments in exchange rates and
demand from the Soviet Union for
imported grains and oilseeds, the
(56VDLG
Following World War II and into
the 1990s, the United States was the
ZRUOG¶VJUDLQVXSHUSRZHUWKH(56
said, by leading in corn and wheat
production as well as exports.
Before the start of the 21st century,
the United States annually exported one-third of the globally traded
wheat and 70% of corn.
Two major disruptions in the
1970s led to lasting changes in
global trade patterns: the Russian
grain " robbery " and the US embargo on soybeans, said Dan Basse,
president of AgResource Company.
³:H¶YH EHFRPH D JOREDO DJULculture market and it started with
Russia (Soviet Union), " he said.
" They were massive buyers because of the failure of the collective
farming system. It really changed
the landscape in the 1970s and it
lasted until the Berlin Wall came
down (in 1989). "
Prior to that, the Soviet Union
Globalization
)ROORZLQJ WKH ¿UVW ZDYH RI JOR- had purchased some wheat from
balization, led by steam and the the United States in 1963 and in the
telegraph, world market prices 1970s implemented a policy of imstarted to drop in the 1920s. At that porting grain every year to feed its
WLPH QHDUO\  RI WKH ZRUOG¶V increasing livestock herds. In 1971,
wheat trade came from four coun- the Soviet Union bought some feed

CHINA SOYBEAN IMPORTS

Brazil emerged as a major exporter in the 1970s and continues
WRSOD\DVLJQL¿FDQWUROHLQWRGD\¶V
global marketplace, one that likely
will continue in decades to come.
While the United States remains a
key exporter, its No. 1 position has
been supplanted by Russia in wheat
exports and by Brazil with soybeans, most of which are destined
for China.
China has become a major grain
importer as it tries to feed 22% of
WKH ZRUOG¶V SRSXODWLRQ ZLWK RQO\
RILWVDUDEOHODQG,PSRUWV¿UVW
surged in the 1970s, following economic reforms, and continued in
the 1980s and 1990s as the nation
HPHUJHGIURPLVRODWLRQ,QWKH¿UVW
decade following its 2001 accession
into the World Trade Organization,
&KLQD¶V LPSRUWV ZHUH OHG E\ VR\beans and sorghum.
Now, as it looks to rebuild its
hog sector following an African
swine fever outbreak and supplement tight domestic corn supplies,
the nation is expected to import 24
million tonnes of corn, 10 million
tonnes of wheat and 100 million
tonnes of soybeans in 2020-21.
Looking ahead, while some facWRUVWKDWLQÀXHQFHGFKDQJLQJJOREDO
trade patterns over the last 100 years
will remain, such as trade policies
and population growth, several new
disruptors are on the horizon that
FRXOGSHUPDQHQWO\DOWHUWKHÀRZRI
agricultural commodities. These include climate change, an increasing
focus on sustainable production,
the rising popularity of plant-based
protein and a push for electric over
fossil fuel use in vehicles.

2,478
3,872
4,056
5,434
3,566
3,458
8,424
8,760
8,932
11,101
15,469
14,504
19,629
20,417
20,137
25,911
23,485
25,364
29,987
28,578
29,951
36,257
41,904
46,829
50,612
54,383
63,137
76,136
74,887
92,130
85,000

27
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World Grain - March 2021

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