World Grain - March 2023 - 74

FEATURE: TRANSITION FROM LA NIÑA TO EL NIÑO MAY BE QUICK
NOAA/NCEI Climate Division Precipitation Anomalies
July 1976
Plains were all reporting lighter-than-usual precipitation
while the southeastern states and lower Midwest
were wetter biased. The quick transition from La
Niña to El Niño was suspected to have induced some
of the dryness noted in May and that which was perpetuated
in June through September across portions of
the Midwest.
In contrast to the drier-than-usual bias in the Midwest
during the summer of 1976, precipitation was greater
than usual in the southern Plains and interior western
states during July and August, and some of that wetter
bias included the Pacific Northwest and a portion of the
southern Canada Prairies.
This parallel to 1976 and the quick transition from
August 1976
La Niña to El Niño is of some concern, especially since
there is other evidence that lighter-than-usual precipitation
should occur in the Midwest, Delta and interior
southeastern states during a part of the spring and
summer season. The 18-year lunar cycle is advertising
lighter-than-usual rainfall for many Midwestern locations
this spring and then a better mix of precipitation
and sunshine during the summer. There is also some
correlation between excessive precipitation in parts of
California during the winter months and a drier bias in
the Midwest and northern Plains during the spring followed
by a wetter summer from the Pacific Northwest
through the northern Plains to the western Midwest.
In addition to all the above, the negative phase of
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and western Midwest as well as the Delta and interior
southeastern states while the central and southern
Plains, Atlantic Coast states and far western United
States were reporting lighter-than-usual precipitation.
The mix of March and April weather was mostly good
for early season fieldwork and the development of
winter wheat in many areas outside of hard red winter
wheat areas.
Dryness continued in March 1976 in the central and
southwestern Plains just as the forecast models are suggesting
for the first half of March this year. April 1976
weather, though, turned much wetter in the central and
southern Plains and a part of the northern Plains while
the lower and eastern Midwest, Delta and southeastern
states were drier than usual along with the middle
Atlantic Coast states.
In May 1976, the far western states, northern Plains,
Canada's southern Prairies, Midwest and southwestern
74
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is prevailing,
tends to produce greater ridge building in the central
United States during the summer months and that,
too, could play into the same trend for a drier finish to
the growing season this year after a favorable distribution
of rain during the spring.
Overall, there are too many indicators pointing toward
a drier-than-usual summer in at least the western
Midwest and Great Plains with this latest assessment
from rapid transitions from La Niña to El Niño possibly
producing one of the stronger correlations of such
conditions. World Weather, Inc. believes the spring
planting season will go well, but summer could trend
too dry in some areas. Cold weather is still possible
in mid to late April in the eastern half of the Midwest
and again possibly in the northern Midwest and eastern
Canada's Prairies in June.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past
and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the
corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to
change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
March 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: NOAA/NCEI
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2023

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