World Grain - May 2022 - 36

Global flour trade trending lower
IGC sees 6% decline from previous quarterly forecast in January
by Arvin Donley
W
ith shipments to parts of Asia falling short
of expectations, the International Grains
Council's (IGC) forecast for global wheat
flour trade in 2021-22 has been reduced by 900,000
tonnes (wheat equivalent), to 13.9 million tonnes, a decline
of 6%.
The report, issued by the IGC on April 21, showed
that the figure for the current year, which ends June 30,
was slightly higher than last year's 13.7 million tonnes
traded but nearly 4 million tonnes below the record set
in 2016-17.
The IGC said the bulk of the quarterly revision is
linked to reduced outlooks in what traditionally have
been the world's top wheat importers. Iraqi imports
are forecast to fall 500,000 from the previous quarterly
projection and Afghanistan's intake is expected to decline
by 300,000 tonnes.
" Nonetheless, imports by Iraq are still expected to
post a sizeable increase year on year, to 2.2 million
tonnes (up from 1.9 million last year), following a disappointing
domestic wheat harvest, " the IGC said.
A year-on-year decline of flour imports by
Afghanistan, from 2.5 million tonnes to 1.7 million,
largely can be traced to a 22% drop in shipments from
Kazakhstan, which has limited wheat and flour exports
due to food security concerns since the start of the
Russia-Ukraine war in February.
The IGC noted that projections for smaller flour importers
such as China, Syria, Yemen and parts of subSaharan
Africa also are revised downward based on the
pace of accumulated arrivals.
36
In addition to Kazakhstan, other major exporters
downgraded from the previous forecast are Turkey
(down 600,000 tonnes), Ukraine (down 300,000
tonnes) and Egypt (down 200,000 tonnes).
India, which recently has emerged as a significant
wheat exporter, also is taking on a bigger role in
flour exports.
" At around 400,000 tonnes, India's wheat flour
shipments in the July-January period already exceed
its full-year volume of 2020-21, with sizeable yearon-year
increases in deliveries to Indonesia, the UAE,
Sri Lanka, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa, " the
IGC said.
In the IGC's initial outlook for 2022-23, it forecasts
global flour trade to expand by 6%, to 14.8 million
tonnes, including larger imports by Iraq, " where poor
production prospects are likely to keep import needs at
a historically high level. "
Imports by Afghanistan also are projected to edge
higher in the upcoming season, assuming a rebound in
shipments from its key supplier, Kazakhstan.
The Council foresees Turkey remaining the world's
largest exporter in 2022-23, with a projected increase
in shipments supported by a potentially larger wheat
harvest and strong overseas demand.
If realized, the IGC's projection for wheat flour trade
in 2022-23 would be the largest since 14.7 million
tonnes were traded in 2019-20.
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May 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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World Grain - May 2022

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