World Grain - May 2023 - 14

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
COARSE
Monthly corn price
(US dollars per tonne)
GRAINS
China sales lift corn
by Chris Lyddon
Corn prices have been firm in recent weeks due in large part
to demand from China, but the prospect of larger supplies
next year has limited the increase. More generally, coarse
grains have been affected by the continued uncertainty surrounding
supplies of grains and oilseeds via the Black Sea.
In its April 20 Grain Market Report, the International
Grains Council (IGC) said its index for corn prices had
eased by 1% month-on-month, " with declines in South
American export values outweighing advances in the US. "
In the United States, corn futures had posted gains of up
to 6%.
" Increases in nearby contracts were most pronounced,
lifted by confirmation of a series of large sales to China, "
the IGC said. " Advances in deferred months were contained
by expectations for larger 2023-24 supplies. "
Firmer CME futures were the main reason for a rise in
export prices by $14, to $298 fob (Gulf).
" Over the past five weeks, the discount to comparable offers
from Argentina has been eroded, with US values now
quoted at a premium of $14 per tonne, " the IGC said. " Quotations
in Argentina eased by $16, to $284 fob (Up River),
tied to seasonal harvest pressure and increased farmer selling.
With supplies for nearby shipments largely covered,
exporters remained mostly inactive.
" Prices in Brazil declined by $4 month-on-month to $284
fob (Paranagua) on bumper crop prospects, but with offers
thinly quoted. "
For barley, the IGC reported that " owing to declines in
export prices in the Black Sea, the EU and Argentina, its
index contracted by 4% month-on-month. "
There was a fall in export quotations of $20, to $267 fob
in France (Rouen).
" As well as spillover from wheat, prices were pressured
by confirmation of a Chinese review on import duties on
Australian barley, " the IGC explained, adding that " underpinned
by solid export demand, values in Western Australia
(Kwinana) rose fractionally, up by $1, to $269 fob. "
Prices in Argentina were down by $40, to $280 fob (Up
River), " partly pressured by concerns about the potential
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for increased export competition into China, albeit with
values highly nominal, " the IGC said.
Sorghum quotations fob US Gulf were up $10 at $347,
" as strength in maize futures more than compensated for
weaker basis, tied to thin demand, " the IGC said, but values
in Argentina and Australia were down. " US oats futures
edged lower in mostly technical trading, " it said, while for
rye it noted that " prices in the EU (Germany) and Russia
continued to work lower, pressured mainly by weakness in
other grain markets, including wheat. "
The US Grains Council, in its April 20 Market Perspectives,
said " concerns about global grain supplies increased
(in mid-April) after Black Sea shipments of Ukrainian
grain were suspended amid conflict between Ukrainian officials
and Russian inspectors. "
" That helped corn and other grain markets rally, but (the
eventual) resolution of the issues and resumption of shipments
has pushed futures lower, " the USGC said. " Fundamental
inputs remain light for now with the biggest factors
still being old crop exports and the weather forecast and
planting efforts for the new crop.
" A big focus for the market right now is the US spring
weather outlook and how it could impact the corn planting
effort. Currently, 8% of US corn has been seeded so far,
with nearly all the progress in the southern US. "
The IGC explained that " this pace is slightly above the
five-year average for mid-April of 5% and is a new fiveyear
high. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
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May 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: USDA; World Bank
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - May 2023

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