World Grain - September 2022 - 76

KEEPING
AN EYE
ON WHEAT
Dryness in Northern Hemisphere could hamper 2023 production
by Drew Lerner
S
ummer in the Northern Hemisphere is quickly
drawing to a close. After much speculation over
drought in North America in 2022, the winner
of the most adverse weather award in the Northern
Hemisphere goes to Europe due to its summer drought
and heat problems. Nearly three years of La Niña contributed
to Europe's dry weather this year and it also
contributed to dryness in the US Plains and Russia's
dry finish to its warm season. September marks the
beginning of meteorological autumn for the Northern
Hemisphere and winter wheat and other small grain
production areas may head the list of areas to watch
until greater rain occurs.
Summer will end with huge moisture deficits and
water supply shortages in Western Europe and many of
the winter wheat and rye production areas in western
Russia. India is quite wet but is still many weeks away
from the wheat planting season. North Africa is still
in a multi-year drought as is the US Pacific Northwest
and a part of southwestern Canada's Prairies. Argentina
also is coming into the Southern Hemisphere spring
season with dryness and some concern over production
potential. In the meantime, both Australia and South
Africa are expecting a good start to their spring growing
season.
Wheat concerns may rise for a while due to lingering
dryness in parts of the Northern Hemisphere and
the prospects for too much rain in Australia. India and
China's planting seasons for winter wheat should advance
well and Brazil is expected to see a good-sized
winter crop.
The biggest concerns over winter crop planting conditions
are expected in parts of western Russia and Europe
due to dryness. Drought in Europe has been declared the
worst in 500 years; however, such a statement cannot be
substantiated because of a limited weather data network
that long ago. From a Vegetative Health Index perspec76
tive,
this year's drought in Europe might not have been
the worst in 500 years. It may not have been as serious as
that of the 2003 drought. Past vegetative health satellite
images dating back to 1982 show 2003 as being the only
year in which mid- to late-August weather was as bad or
worse than that of this year.
From a water supply perspective, though, river,
stream and water reservoir levels in Western Europe
have not been as low as reported this summer at
any time in the recorded past, especially in France.
However, it is important to remember that water supply
is a function of consumption and usage. Today's
water supply worldwide is much more challenged than
that of decades past because of the much larger human
population present now. The higher human count results
in greater water consumption and greater irrigation
and manufacturing usage depleting water supply
much faster than in years past, making the drought environment
appear many times worse.
Europe is coming into the autumn wheat, barley and
rye planting season in a state of moisture distress in
relation to its water storage and soil moisture. Winter
wheat and rye planting usually begins in northeastern
Europe in the last days of August and early September.
That part of Europe is not nearly as dry as western areas
are, and the west will not plant winter crops until
late September and more likely October, leaving sufficient
time for improved precipitation and water supply.
Russia, on the other hand, is planting its winter wheat
and rye crop now, and that process has been underway
for a few weeks and will peak in September before ending
in early October. Soil conditions in Russia's winter
crop region have slipped to dry in recent weeks and
relief will have to evolve in September to provide adequate
winter crop emergence and establishment before
temperatures turn too cold to establish crops.
There is plenty of time to get this year's wheat and rye
September 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
©Sergey - stock.adobe.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - September 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - September 2022
