World Grain - September 2022 - 78

FEATURE: KEEPING AN EYE ON WHEAT
Aug. 19, 2022
Europe vegetative health index
Aug. 19, 2003
6 12
Stressed
into the ground, but winter this year is expected to be
cold and snow cover may be restricted at times, raising
the potential for winterkill. If winter crops are not wellestablished
this autumn, the potential crop damage during
the coldest weeks of winter may be greater than usual.
Prospects good in Australia
Australia's wheat, barley and canola prospects are
looking good. Autumn and winter precipitation this
year was more than sufficient to support winter crop
emergence and establishment. Crops are poised to perform
very well in the spring with early season aggressive
crop development beginning in early September
for Queensland and northern Western Australia.
Australia's favorable start to spring could end up
with too much rain. The combination of lingering La
Niña and the negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) from September through October and possibly
into November should translate into greater-than-usual
rainfall frequency and intensity in Victoria, South
Australia, and New South Wales. Queensland also
could be wetter biased because of La Niña. Too much
rain during reproduction, especially during filling, maturation
and harvesting, could take a huge crop of high
quality and reduce it to a much smaller crop of lower
quality. Australia will need to be closely monitored because
of this potential issue.
Argentina may already have lost some of its winter
crop production potential due to dryness during the
planting and establishment season. However, timely
rain this spring could still turn the crop around and it
will be closely monitored.
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Favorable
Dryness in the US Plains has been recently relieved
in Texas and Oklahoma, but portions of Kansas and
Nebraska are dry and may trend drier during the autumn.
That could lead to poor establishment of winter
wheat for a third year in a row. But with La Niña easing
or dissipating during the winter of 2023, the odds are
favorable for better soil moisture and crop establishment
by the start of spring growth.
Canada's central and southwestern Prairies recently
have fallen back into a drought pattern and will need
rain soon to support winter crop establishment and to
ensure sufficient moisture in the early spring to spur on
a normal planting season.
Both China and India should have favorable planting
moisture for their wheat crops this autumn while North
Africa reaches its planting season in November quite
dry. The good news for North Africa is that La Niña's
dissipation in December and January should translate
into improved rainfall and better production potentials.
Each season brings with it an assortment of questionable
weather and worry over production. This autumn will
be no different and the situation needs to be closely monitored
for a possible impact on world wheat supply.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and
future weather conditions included in this report constitute
the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are
subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
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September 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: World Weather Inc.
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - September 2022

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