ILMA Compoundings - April 2020 - 35
Long March." In that piece, I used Johnnie Walker Scotch
Whisky as a lens to tell a broader story of the rise of new,
aspirational consumer classes across emerging markets.
After my initial stint in Saudi Arabia, I returned home
to Washington, D.C. (I grew up in a suburb of D.C.), and
began a graduate studies program at the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies. It was a great
experience, because most of the students were about my
age at the time - mid-20s - with some international
experience, and we bonded in our common search for
understanding the changing world (and remember this was
the late 1990s, far before the information revolution hyperaccelerated our changing world). After graduate school,
over the next two decades, I worked as a journalist (Reuters,
The Washington Post and Financial Times), an analyst with a
development bank (the World Bank's International Finance
Corp.), a geopolitical risk analyst (Oxford Analytica), and a
think tank fellow and academic (Woodrow Wilson Center,
New America Foundation and Johns Hopkins SAIS' Foreign Policy Institute). I traveled widely across the Middle
East and Asia, and nothing can substitute for getting your
shoes dirty, seeing places up close, meeting people, making
meaningful connections. Without travel, I simply could not
do what I do today.
Compoundings: What are some global trends that are
changing how organizations conduct business?
Molavi: When I look at the macro environment, I try to
look at long-term trends. Of course, we all follow the shortterm ups and downs of politics - and I look forward to
discussing those issues with ILMA members - but I think
it's vital to keep your eye on the long-term trends, the trends
that I describe as disruption-proof. The biggest of these can
be summarized in three sentences: More than 85% of the
world lives outside of the West, and the demographic dominance of Asia and Africa will continue through the next few
decades; more than half of the world is urbanized today, and
we are headed for two-thirds urban by 2050, with the fastest
urban growth taking place in that "85 world" I described;
and more than half of the world has entered what can be
described as middle class, and the next billion middle-class
consumers will overwhelmingly come from Asia, with dramatic ramifications on how we consume, connect, produce
and live.
Compoundings: You use that term "disruption-proof "
to describe some of those trends. What do you mean by
"disruption-proof," and why are those trends important for
manufacturers to keep top of mind?
35
ILMA Compoundings - April 2020
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