ILMA Compoundings - April 2020 - 36

Molavi: The reason I call these "disruption-proof " is because
the demographics of the world will not change because there
is a new occupant of the White House, global urbanization
trends will not change because of the latest populist movement in Europe, and the trend lines for rising middle classes
in Asia (and to some extent in Africa) are well-set no matter
who wins the Democratic primary. This does not suggest
that those shorter-term trends do not matter. They do, and
they always will, but over the long term, demographics,
urbanization and rising middle classes are sort of like heavy
tectonic plates that have a way of shifting everything. That's
why I call them "everything trends."
Compoundings: Without giving too much of your ILMA
Engage presentation away, how can organizations, particularly
those in manufacturing, adapt to these disruption-proof trends?
Molavi: As long as organizations understand that the long
game will involve a whole lot of new markets across Asia
and Africa, I am sure they will find ways to leverage these
trends. I often say that for all of the dysfunction in our
politics in the U.S., our private sector remains the most
dynamic, nimble, innovative force multiplier in the world. I
also should note that the "rise of the rest" does not mean the

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36

APRIL 2020

| COMPOUNDINGS | ILMA.ORG

!

eclipse of the West. The U.S. economy, owing a great deal to
its private sector, remains one of the strongest in the world,
and "the 15%" of Europe, Canada and the U.S. still remain
powerful economic actors - and will remain so well into
the century.
Over the next quarter-century, the trends I described in
demographics, urbanization and growing middle classes will
combine with the hyper-technology age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution to create - well - I really am not sure, and
if I told you specifically what the robotics or AI or nanotechnology revolution would bring us, I would be engaged in
sheer speculation. One thing we can say for sure - and here
I like to quote Mike Tyson, who once said, "Everyone has a
plan. That is, until you get punched in the face." The punches
will come, and the best companies will be the most resilient
counter-punchers and those that have stayed ahead of the
game to avoid those punches in the first place.
Molavi is senior fellow, Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins University
School of Advanced International Studies, and co-director of emerge85
Lab. He will deliver his presentation, titled "Five Disruption-Proof Trends
Disrupting our World and Their Impact on Politics, Business and
Technology," at the lunch session, Friday, April 3, at ILMA Engage.

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ILMA Compoundings - April 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings - April 2020

ILMA Compoundings - April 2020 - Cover1
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