ILMA Compoundings - July 2020 - 18

Blue
Skies
Ahead

Despite the pandemic's interference, aerospace
and military lubricants are poised to persevere
By M. Diane McCormick

I

n 2020, the skies quieted like never before. If anything
was flying overhead, it was usually a bird or a military
flyover honoring frontline health care workers.
The ripple effects of the aerospace shutdown extended
into every corner of the global economy. Manufacturers of
lubricants for commercial aerospace and the military felt the
shock. As they adjust and look toward recovery, what can
they expect? With lubricant manufacturers' history of fostering innovation, financial analysts and industry insiders see a
place for high-performance lubricants in economic recovery.

The Aerospace Lubricants Outlook

In the aerospace realm, 60% of the world's commercial
fleets were grounded due to the COVID-19 pandemic,
said Richard Aboulafia, vice president, analysis, of Fairfax,
Virginia-based Teal Group Corp., an aerospace and defense
market analysis firm.
"Thankfully, the military side is completely intact," Aboulafia said. "That's good. But the commercial side has never
seen numbers like these."
The COVID-19 pandemic made the aerospace industry's
concerns of 2019, led by the grounding of the Boeing 737

18

JULY 2020

| COMPOUNDINGS | ILMA.ORG

Max, "seem to be graver," Research and Markets said in its
strategic assessment report, Aircraft Lubricants Market.
The report, released May 25, featured forecasts and
growth opportunities through 2025. Aircraft industry losses
could mount from $63 billion to $113 billion, depending
on the extent of the coronavirus's spread, the report said.
But gauging the true impact is impossible to predict and
requires a close watch of directives, country by country.
Despite these obstacles, "the long-term outlook still seems
vigorous for the aerospace industry including the lubricant
market with attractive growth opportunities for the market
participants in years to come," noted the report. Boeing and
Airbus both projected that global commercial fleets could
more than double by 2030.
"Increasing demand for fuel-efficient aircraft and increasing share of high-performance capability (HPC) turbine oils
are further likely to boost the demand for aircraft lubricants
in the coming five years," the report noted. Modern engines
demand improved temperature resistance, higher thermal
stress, improved oxidation performance and sealing material
compatibility.


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ILMA Compoundings - July 2020

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