ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 52

FINANCIAL FREEDOM

the first Gulf War generated great concerns. 1998 saw the
Russian government and its Central Bank devalue the ruble and
default on its debt.
The 2000s: Negative GDP growth in 2001 gave the decade a
poor start, but this paled in comparison to the more than 8
percent drop in GDP growth in 2008 that resulted from the
worst credit crisis in the nation's history. The market could
not overcome this issue within the decade, but in a sense, this
decade led to a key item that underscores our main point.
Although we are only slightly more than halfway through this
decade (the 2010s), despite the considerable problems at the
beginning of this century, the S&P 500 is substantially higher
than it was when the previous decade began. Admittedly,
considering the number of years since 2000, the percentage
gain is small and well below the long-term average, but
historically, periods of underperformance like this are often
followed by substantial outperformance for a period of years.

the premise that it is not timing the market that is important,
but rather time in the market. A more appropriate measure of
the equity market is the history of rolling total returns. In other
words, what are the odds that over a given period an investor
would experience a negative return? The data below quite
definitely show that the longer an investor remained in equities,
the less chance they would experience a negative return.

The market's performance through various rolling periods is
potentially more relevant for true investors and underscores

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Note that all of the data are as of the end of 2015. If these
results were updated to the current month, the recent market
upswing to a new high would raise the data in all of the
measured periods.
Looking at this data shows that an investor had a 26.7 percent
chance of a negative market result in any one-year period. The
negative return possibility falls to 13.9 percent in any five-year
period, 4.9 percent in any 10-year period and no chance of
negative return in any 15-year period. A 20-year period analysis
would not show negative results, either. Clearly there is no
assurance that the market's future performance will match the
historic results, but the consistency of long-term results cannot
be ignored.

Carter is executive vice president, wealth management for CSG
Capital Partners of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC and is
investment advisor to ILMA. He may be reached at 202-955-4307 or
mcarter@janney.com.
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC is ILMA's investment firm.
The views expressed herein are those of Carter and do not
necessarily reflect those of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or ILMA.

Vol. 66 No. 10 * 52 * October 2016 Compoundings


http://www.biederman.ca

ILMA Compoundings October 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings October 2016

FROM THE PRESIDENT
FROM THE CEO
ILMA THANKS
VOICES & VIEWS: Today's Most Powerful Marketing Tool
VOICES & VIEWS: As the Market Turns: Preparing for the Next Upswing in Carrier Rates
VOICES & VIEWS: Technology Trends for Lubricants Companies: The Benefits of Working with Millennials
SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM
NOTES FROM API
NOTES FROM STLE
THE ICIS VIEW
INFINEUM: THE EVOLUTION OF PC-11 AND GF-6
MILITARY MATTERS
INTERNATIONAL INSIGHT
FOCUS ON ETHICS
REGULATORY SPOTLIGHT
FAMILY BUSINESS
FINANCIAL FREEDOM
RULES & REGS
POWER PLAY
LEGAL EASE
THE WHITE PAPER
THE HEART OF ILMA
Happy Trails: ILMA Sends Best Wishes to Retiring Members
Etna Hosts Congressional Dialogue with Rep. David Joyce
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 1
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 2
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 3
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 4
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 5
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 6
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - FROM THE PRESIDENT
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 8
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - ILMA THANKS
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 10
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 11
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - VOICES & VIEWS: Today's Most Powerful Marketing Tool
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 13
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 14
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - VOICES & VIEWS: As the Market Turns: Preparing for the Next Upswing in Carrier Rates
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 16
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - VOICES & VIEWS: Technology Trends for Lubricants Companies: The Benefits of Working with Millennials
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 18
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 19
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 21
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 22
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 23
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 24
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - NOTES FROM API
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 26
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 27
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - NOTES FROM STLE
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 29
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 30
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - THE ICIS VIEW
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 32
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 33
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - INFINEUM: THE EVOLUTION OF PC-11 AND GF-6
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 35
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - MILITARY MATTERS
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 37
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - INTERNATIONAL INSIGHT
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 39
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 40
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 41
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - FOCUS ON ETHICS
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 43
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - REGULATORY SPOTLIGHT
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 45
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 46
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - FAMILY BUSINESS
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 48
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 49
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 50
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - FINANCIAL FREEDOM
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 52
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 53
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - RULES & REGS
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 55
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 56
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - POWER PLAY
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 58
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - LEGAL EASE
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 60
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 61
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - THE WHITE PAPER
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 63
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 64
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - THE HEART OF ILMA
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - Happy Trails: ILMA Sends Best Wishes to Retiring Members
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - Etna Hosts Congressional Dialogue with Rep. David Joyce
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 68
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 69
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 70
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 71
ILMA Compoundings October 2016 - 72
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