ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 10

VOICES & VIEWS

In North America, increased adoption of AMTs will continue throughout the
forecast period, even though Class 8 truck demand is expected to decline sharply
in 2021 because of the implementation of the phase 2 GHG emission regulations
in 2021, points out Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems
Research.
This shift away from automatic and manual transmissions towards AMTs from
2016 to 2021 will mean a changing requirement in terms of transmission fluids
and perhaps some careful planning needed for those involved in the supply of
lubricants and fluids.

Population Forecasts
Now, if we look at North American in-service population of Class 8 vehicles, we see
that the population drops from 3,405,392 in 2016 to 3,255,495 in 2018 and 3,165,825
in 2021.

"The decline in Class 8 truck population between 2016 and 2021 reflects the cyclical
nature of the industry rather than a negative trend," said Fisher. "Currently, Class
8 truck population is very high in North America due to three strong years of
Class 8 truck sales ending in 2015. The forecasted slowdown in sales growth during
the next two to three years compared to the sales levels seen in the 2013 to 2015
timeframe will contribute to a declining Class 8 truck population."
The population will settle out at 3,165,825 by 2021, about 55,000 units lower
than 2020. This shrinkage is a result of a deficit in the rate at which new units are
entering into service and older units are being retired from service.

Calculating Lubricant Demand
To demonstrate annual changes and a five-year estimated trend in first fill and
aftermarket engine oil demands for Class 8 vehicles, we used the Freightliner
Cascadia.
In calculating the Cascadia's annual lubricant demand out to 2021, we made several
assumptions.

Vol. 66 No. 12 * 10 * December 2016 Compoundings



ILMA Compoundings December 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings December 2016

ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 1
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 2
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 3
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 4
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 5
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 6
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 7
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 8
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 9
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 10
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 11
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 12
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ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 14
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 15
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 16
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 17
ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 18
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ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 35
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ILMA Compoundings December 2016 - 44
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