ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 54

IN NETWORK

Cross Connections
Transportation in
2030: Gas, Hybrid
or Electric?
By Ed Salek

W

hen it comes to transportation, and the automobile in particular, the tribology and lubrication
engineering industry has had a remarkable track
record for the past 50 years.
Innovation has been spurred by a mix of factors, including
a growing population, a demand for increased fuel efficiency
and concerns over environmental impact. This has resulted
in a number of high-impact trends and technologies, such
as high-power density engines, smaller automotive system
designs and the use of low-viscosity motor oils and longerlasting lubricants.

Most significant trend in transportation by region
Asia and
Pacific

Europe/
North South/Latin
Commonwealth
America
America
of Ind. States

Sample

29

35

175

19

High-efficiency vehicles

17%

20%

17%

32%

Pure electric
vehicles (PEV)

21%

31%

12%

11%

Self-driving,
autonomous vehicles

10%

9%

18%

5%

Lower-viscosity
motor oils

3%

11%

11%

11%

Hybrid electric vehicles

17%

14%

7%

0%

Low-emissions vehicles

7%

6%

7%

16%

A new report from the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers (STLE), created in cooperation with the
McKinley Advisors research organization, explores what's
next for innovative technology in transportation and five
other technical areas. The STLE 2017 Report on Emerging
Issues and Trends draws on expert opinion from more than
900 industry leaders in North America, Europe, Asia and
Latin America to explore the future challenges facing tribologists and lubrication engineers.

54

OCTOBER 2017

| COMPOUNDINGS | ILMA.ORG

This report represents the second iteration, or wave,
of trend research sponsored by STLE. The first report,
published in 2014, highlighted numerous technologies and
developments that were poised to take off in manufacturing,
transportation, energy, medicine and health, communications and data management and in the study of friction and
atomistic processes. This report builds on that foundation
and frames the complex issues facing the lubricants and
tribology sectors in the short-term (defined as next five
to 10 years) and the long-term (more than 10 years).
Many specific challenges and technologies in transportation are viewed as short-term in nature, such as the challenge of low-speed pre-ignition (49 percent), the use of
a greater number of gear steps in transmissions (47 percent)
and dual-clutch transmissions (41 percent). These engineering challenges are likely to be resolved as designs improve
and old technology is replaced.
For the long-term, four prominent trends or technologies
were identified as pertinent to transportation. Seventy percent of survey respondents identified pure electric vehicles
(PEVs) as a technology that will play a significant role in the
long run. Similarly, 68 percent of survey respondents noted
that self-driving, or autonomous, cars also would be
a long-term trend. Other top long-term trends and technologies identified were high-efficiency vehicles (59 percent),
low-emissions vehicles (55 percent) and lighter materials
used in vehicle construction (54 percent).
Experts asked about the PEV trend said that the greatest
impact of these technologies probably won't hit until about
2030. However, they also noted that this is a potentially
disruptive force and that questions loom about how quickly
these cars might take off and what fluids will be needed in
the future.
Trends also varied according to the respondents' country of residence (see table). Those in the Asia and Pacific
regions and Europe indicated that PEVs would be the most
significant trend in transportation, but respondents from
North America identified autonomous vehicles as their top
selection. Those from South/Latin America selected highefficiency vehicles.
The STLE 2017 Report on Emerging Issues and Trends is
available through the STLE website, www.stle.org.
Salek is executive director of STLE.


http://www.stle.org http://www.ILMA.ORG

ILMA Compoundings October 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings October 2017

LETTER FROM THE CEO
LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
INSIDE ILMA
WHAT’S COMING UP
INDUSTRY RUNDOWN
In the Know
International Insight
Market Report
BUYING OR SELLING
INCREASED LITHIUM DEMAND, SHORTAGES LEAD TO PRICE SPIKES FOR GREASE MANUFACTURERS…
MANAGING INVENTORY: WHAT’S IN YOUR TOOL CHEST?
BUSINESS HUB
COUNSEL COMPOUND
WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE
IN NETWORK
Company Callout
Member Connections
Cross Connections
PORTRAIT
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Cover1
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Cover2
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 1
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 2
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - LETTER FROM THE CEO
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 4
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - INSIDE ILMA
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 7
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 8
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 9
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - WHAT’S COMING UP
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 11
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - INDUSTRY RUNDOWN
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 13
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 14
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - In the Know
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - International Insight
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 17
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 18
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 19
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Market Report
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 21
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 22
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 23
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - BUYING OR SELLING
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 25
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 26
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 27
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 28
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 29
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - INCREASED LITHIUM DEMAND, SHORTAGES LEAD TO PRICE SPIKES FOR GREASE MANUFACTURERS…
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 31
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 32
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 33
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 34
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 35
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - MANAGING INVENTORY: WHAT’S IN YOUR TOOL CHEST?
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 37
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 38
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 39
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 40
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 41
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - BUSINESS HUB
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 43
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 44
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 45
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - COUNSEL COMPOUND
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 47
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 49
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Company Callout
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 51
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Member Connections
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 53
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Cross Connections
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 55
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 56
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 57
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 58
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - 59
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - PORTRAIT
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Cover3
ILMA Compoundings October 2017 - Cover4
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